Monitoring and modelling surface deformation are crucial components of understanding the freeze-thaw process and preventing disasters in permafrost regions. However, previous methods had limitations that inhibited the interpretation of freeze-thaw deformation, such as a lack of physical meaning, an inability to reflect the physical freeze-thaw process and consideration of only a single external factor's impact on permafrost deformation. This study proposes an improved degree-day model (IDM) for quantitatively isolating surface deformation using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology over permafrost. We considered the effect of soil moisture variation on permafrost deformation and incorporated interannual variation in the freeze-thaw process due to climate change. By applying small baseline subset (SBAS) technology to Sentinel-1 InSAR measurements over the Wudaoliang permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2018 to 2019, we estimated long-term and seasonal permafrost deformation. The reliability of InSAR results was validated using in situ measurements, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) less than 10 mm. The results showed that the average linear deformation rates in 2018 and 2019 were -3.8 mm a-1 and -11.0 mm a-1, respectively, and the maximum seasonal deformations were 15.7 mm and 13.2 mm, respectively. Compared with the original degree-day model (ODM), the method used in this study produced smaller residual deformations of 6.9 mm and 6.4 mm, highlighting its ability to improve a quantitative description of permafrost deformation.

The freeze-thaw (F-T) cycle of the active layer (AL) causes the frost heave and thaw settlement deformation of the terrain surface. Accurately identifying its amplitude and time characteristics is important for climate, hydrology, and ecology research in permafrost regions. We used Sentinel-1 SAR data and small baseline subset-interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) technology to obtain the characteristics of F-T cycles in the Zonag Lake-Yanhu Lake permafrost-affected endorheic basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the seasonal deformation amplitude (SDA) in the study area mainly ranges from 0 to 60 mm, with an average value of 19 mm. The date of maximum frost heave (MFH) occurred between November 27th and March 21st of the following year, averaged in date of the year (DOY) 37. The maximum thaw settlement (MTS) occurred between July 25th and September 21st, averaged in DOY 225. The thawing duration is the thawing process lasting about 193 days. The spatial distribution differences in SDA, the date of MFH, and the date of MTS are relatively significant, but there is no apparent spatial difference in thawing duration. Although the SDA in the study area is mainly affected by the thermal state of permafrost, it still has the most apparent relationship with vegetation cover, the soil water content in AL, and active layer thickness. SDA has an apparent negative and positive correlation with the date of MFH and the date of MTS. In addition, due to the influence of soil texture and seasonal rivers, the seasonal deformation characteristics of the alluvial-diluvial area are different from those of the surrounding areas. This study provides a method for analyzing the F-T cycle of the AL using multi-temporal InSAR technology.

The Qilian Mountains, located on the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, are characterized by unique high-altitude and cold-climate terrain, where permafrost and seasonally frozen ground are extensively distributed. In recent years, with global warming and increasing precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, permafrost degradation has become severe, further exacerbating the fragility of the ecological environment. Therefore, timely research on surface deformation and the freeze-thaw patterns of alpine permafrost in the Qilian Mountains is imperative. This study employs Sentinel-1A SAR data and the SBAS-InSAR technique to monitor surface deformation in the alpine permafrost regions of the Qilian Mountains from 2017 to 2023. A method for spatiotemporal interpolation of ascending and descending orbit results is proposed to calculate two-dimensional surface deformation fields further. Moreover, by constructing a dynamic periodic deformation model, the study more accurately summarizes the regular changes in permafrost freeze-thaw and the trends in seasonal deformation amplitudes. The results indicate that the surface deformation time series in both vertical and east-west directions obtained using this method show significant improvements in accuracy over the initial data, allowing for a more precise reflection of the dynamic processes of surface deformation in the study area. Subsidence is predominant in permafrost areas, while uplift mainly occurs in seasonally frozen ground areas near lakes and streams. The average vertical deformation rate is 1.56 mm/a, with seasonal amplitudes reaching 35 mm. Topographical (elevation; slope gradient; aspect) and climatic factors (temperature; soil moisture; precipitation) play key roles in deformation patterns. The deformation of permafrost follows five distinct phases: summer thawing; warm-season stability; frost heave; winter cooling; and spring thawing. This study enhances our understanding of permafrost deformation characteristics in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, providing a reference for preventing geological disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area and offering theoretical guidance for regional ecological environmental protection and infrastructure safety.

Under the interference of climate warming and human engineering activities, the degradation of permafrost causes the frequent occurrence of geological disasters such as uneven foundation settlement and landslides, which brings great challenges to the construction and operational safety of road projects. In this paper, the spatial and temporal evolution of surface deformations along the Beihei Highway was investigated by combining the SBAS-InSAR technique and the surface frost number model after considering the vegetation factor with multi-source remote sensing observation data. After comprehensively considering factors such as climate change, permafrost degradation, anthropogenic disturbance, and vegetation disturbance, the surface uneven settlement and landslide processes were analyzed in conjunction with site surveys and ground data. The results show that the average deformation rate is approximately -16 mm/a over the 22 km of the study area. The rate of surface deformation on the pavement is related to topography, and the rate of surface subsidence on the pavement is more pronounced in areas with high topographic relief and a sunny aspect. Permafrost along the roads in the study area showed an insignificant degradation trend, and at landslides with large surface deformation, permafrost showed a significant degradation trend. Meteorological monitoring data indicate that the annual minimum mean temperature in the study area is increasing rapidly at a rate of 1.266 degrees C/10a during the last 40 years. The occurrence of landslides is associated with precipitation and freeze-thaw cycles. There are interactions between permafrost degradation, landslides, and vegetation degradation, and permafrost and vegetation are important influences on uneven surface settlement. Focusing on the spatial and temporal evolution process of surface deformation in the permafrost zone can help to deeply understand the mechanism of climate change impact on road hazards in the permafrost zone.

Quantifying seasonal deformation is essential for accurately determining the thickness of the active layer and the distribution of water content within it, providing insights into the freeze-thaw dynamics of permafrost environments and their sensitivity to climate change. Due to the limited hydraulic conductivity of the underlying permafrost, the freeze-thaw processes are largely confined to the active layer, allowing for predictable seasonal deformations. This study employed Independent Component Analysis to isolate large-scale seasonal deformation from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements taken from 2016 to 2020 in the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR) of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), covering 18,500 km2. We developed dedicated machine learning (ML) models that integrate these InSAR-derived measurements with various environmental proxies. By applying these models to the YRSR, we generated a comprehensive, full-coverage deformation map for permafrost terrains, achieving an R2 value of 0.91 and an Root Mean Squared Error of approximately 0.5 cm, thus confirming the model's strong predictability of seasonal deformation in permafrost regions. Deformation magnitude varied from less than 1 cm to over 10 cm. Our analysis suggests that terrain attributes, influenced by climate and soil conditions, are the primary factors driving these deformations. This research provides valuable insights into quantifying permafrost-related seasonal deformation across expansive and rural landscapes. It also aids in assessing subsurface hydrological processes and the resilience and vulnerability of permafrost. The developed ML algorithm, with access to precise environmental data, is capable of forecasting seasonal deformations across the entire QTP and potentially throughout the Arctic. Seasonal ground deformation, including both subsidence and uplift, is common in areas with a layer of ground that freezes and thaws seasonally, underlain by permafrost-a type of ground that remains at or below 0 degrees C for at least 2 years. These deformations are crucial indicators of changes in water content and thickness of this layer, offering insights into the freeze-thaw dynamics of cold environments and their sensitivity to climate change. However, accurately mapping ground deformation over large areas has been challenging. In this study, we developed machine learning (ML) models that use radar remote sensing data, statistical methods, and a set of environmental variables to predict these seasonal ground movements. Our models can accurately forecast seasonal deformation using readily available environmental data. We find that slope of the terrain is the main factor influencing seasonal deformation, with climate and soil conditions also playing significant roles. This research offers new ways to measure and understand ground deformation in remote permafrost regions and demonstrates how ML can be used to predict such deformations on a continental or even global scale large. Our findings provide valuable insights for environmental scientists and could help inform strategies for managing these regions under changing climatic conditions. Our results underscore the predictability of seasonal deformation with high accuracy in permafrost terrains Machine learning models predict full-coverage seasonal deformation with high accuracy (R2 = 0.91, Root Mean Squared Error [RMSE] = 0.5 cm) Seasonal deformation is primarily determined by terrain slope and regulated by climate and soil conditions

Deformation and failure of the talus slope in the cold region significantly threaten engineered structures. Its driving mechanism of the deformation process is the most challenging issue. In this study, we try to explore these issues using tree ring characteristics. Fifty samples from 21 trees of Pinus densiflora growing on the talus slope in the Huanren area of Northeast China are tested to investigate the characteristics of tree rings and their relation to climate change. The deformation and its driving mechanism of this talus slope are then studied by combining the analysis of tree-ring width and mutation identification with the local meteorological data. The results present that the studied talus slope in Huanren has deformed to varying degrees at least 60 times since 1900. It is reasonable to speculate that the deformation mode of this slope is probably of a long-term and slow type. The local precipitation and seasonal temperature difference are the vital inducing factors of the mutation of tree-ring width and slope deformation. Repeated freezing and thawing are believed to be the driving factors of this talus slope in the cold region. A theoretical model is proposed to capture and predict the deformation of the talus slope. This work presents a new perspective and insight to reveal the deformation and its driving mechanism of similar talus slopes in the cold region. It is of great significance to practical engineering treatment and disaster prevention for this kind of cold region environment.

Due to the effects of global climate change, the permafrost temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has rapidly increased over the past decades. The development of thermokarst landforms is one distinctive indicator of permafrost degradation, while the change of the rate of permafrost degradation in recent 10 years has not been systematically investigated in QTP. In this paper, the annual average growth rate (AAGR) of ground deformation, the change of thaw slump areas, and the change of active layer thickness (ALT) of thermokarst landforms are monitored integrating SAR (synthetic aperture radar) and optical images for years 2007 to 2020 in Qilian Mountain, northern QTP. The ground deformation rate and seasonal amplitude were estimated by InSAR method, and the descending and ascending InSAR data are compared the validate the results. Based on the deformation results, AAGR was introduced to evaluate the permafrost degradation degree. Moreover, the ALT were estimated based on the seasonal deformation amplitude and Stefan model. The spatio-temporal characteristics of ground deformation and its relationship with thaw slump and temperature are explored. Experimental results show that the deformation rate increased about 150 % from 2007 to 10 to 2017-20. The maximum AAGR of deformation rate in the study area can reach 20.6 %. The thaw slump area has an obvious trend of expansion from 2009 to 2015, and its distribution agreed well with the deformation map. The ALT results ranged from 0.5 m to 2.8 m, indicating an obvious increase trend from 2007 to 2020. Based on the estimated increased ground deformation, thaw slump area, and ALT, it is inferred that frozen ground was undergoing serious degradation in the last 10 years. This study demonstrates the capability of multi-temporal InSAR in observing the accelerated permafrost thaw-freezing process and monitoring the permafrost parameters.

Seasonally frozen soil (SFS) is a critical component of the Cryosphere, and its heat-moisture-deformation characteristics during freeze-thaw processes greatly affect ecosystems, climate, and infrastructure stability. The influence of solar radiation and underlying surface colors on heat exchange between the atmosphere and soil, and SFS development, remains incompletely understood. A unidirectional freezing-thawing test system that considers solar radiation was developed. Subsequently, soil unidirectional freezing-thawing tests were conducted under varying solar radiation intensities and surface colors, and variations in heat flux, temperature, water content, and deformation were monitored. Finally, the effects of solar radiation and surface color on surface thermal response and soil heat-moisture-deformation behaviors were discussed. The results show that solar radiation and highabsorptivity surfaces can increase surface heat flux and convective heat flux, and linearly raise surface temperature. The small heat flux difference at night under different conditions indicates that soil ice-water phase change effectively stores solar energy, slowing down freezing depth development and delaying rapid and stable frost heave onset, ultimately reducing frost heave. Solar radiation causes a significant temperature increase during initial freezing and melting periods, yet its effect decreases notably in other freezing periods. Soil heatwater-deformation characteristics fluctuate due to solar radiation and diurnal soil freeze-thaw cycles exhibit cumulative water migration. Daily maximum solar radiation of 168 W/m(2) and 308 W/m(2) can cause heatmoisture fluctuations in SFS at depths of 6 cm and 11 cm, respectively. The research findings offer valuable insights into the formation, development, and use of solar radiation to mitigate frost heave in SFS.

Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) undergoes significant thawing and degradation, which affects the hydrological processes, ecosystems and infrastructure stability. The ground deformation, a key indicator of permafrost degradation, can be quantified via geodetic observations, especially using multi-temporal InSAR techniques. The previous InSAR studies, however, either rely on data-driven models or Stefan-equation-based models, which are both lacking of consideration of the spatial-temporal variations of freeze-thaw processes. Furthermore, the magnitudes and patterns of the permafrost-related ground deformation over large scales (e.g., 1 x 10(5) km(2) or larger) is still insufficiently quantified or poorly understood. In this study, to account for the spatial heterogeneity of freeze-thaw processes, we develop a permafrost-tailored InSAR approach by incorporating a MODIS-land-surface-temperature-integrated ground deformation model to reconstruct the seasonal and long-term deformation. Utilizing the approach to Sentinel-1 SAR images on the vast regions of about 140,000 km(2) of the central QTP during 2014-2019, we observe widespread seasonal deformation up to about 80 mm with a mean value of about 10 mm and linear subsidence up to 20 mm/year. We apply the geographical detector to determine the controlling factors on the permafrost-related deformation. We find that the slope angle is the primary controller on the seasonal deformation: strong magnitudes and variations of seasonal deformation are most pronounced in flat or gentle-slope regions. The aspect angle, vegetation and soil bulk density exhibit a certain correlation with seasonal deformation as well. Meanwhile, we find that a linear subsidence is higher in the regions with high ground ice content and warm permafrost. It indicates that warm and ice-rich permafrost regions are more vulnerable to extensive long-term subsidence. We also observe that the cold permafrost regions experience lower linear subsidence even with high ground ice content, which indicate ice loss is limited. Thus, we infer that under continuously warming, the transition from cold permafrost to warm permafrost may lead to more extensive ground ice melting. Moreover, the strong subsidence/uplift signals surrounding some lakes suggesting that the change of local hydrological conditions may induce localized permafrost degradation/aggradation. Our study demonstrates the capability of the permafrost-tailored InSAR approach to quantify the permafrost freeze-thaw dynamics as well as their spatial-temporal patterns over large scales in vast permafrost areas.

As one of the best indicators of the periglacial environment, ice-wedge polygons (IWPs) are important for arctic landscapes, hydrology, engineering, and ecosystems. Thus, a better understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics and evolution of IWPs is key to evaluating the hydrothermal state and carbon budgets of the arctic permafrost environment. In this paper, the dynamics of ground surface deformation (GSD) in IWP zones (2018-2019) and their influencing factors over the last 20 years in Saskylakh, northwestern Yakutia, Russia were investigated using the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Google Earth Engine (GEE). The results show an annual ground surface deformation rate (AGSDR) in Saskylakh at -49.73 to 45.97 mm/a during the period from 1 June 2018 to 3 May 2019. All the selected GSD regions indicate that the relationship between GSD and land surface temperature (LST) is positive (upheaving) for regions with larger AGSDR, and negative (subsidence) for regions with lower AGSDR. The most drastic deformation was observed at the Aeroport regions with GSDs rates of -37.06 mm/a at tower and 35.45 mm/a at runway. The GSDs are negatively correlated with the LST of most low-centered polygons (LCPs) and high-centered polygons (HCPs). Specifically, the higher the vegetation cover, the higher the LST and the thicker the active layer. An evident permafrost degradation has been observed in Saskylakh as reflected in higher ground temperatures, lusher vegetation, greater active layer thickness, and fluctuant numbers and areal extents of thermokarst lakes and ponds.