Water temperature extremes can pose serious threats to the aquatic ecosystems of mountain rivers. These rivers are influenced by snow and glaciermelt, which change with climate. As a result, the frequency and severity of water temperature extremes may change. While previous studies have documented changes in non-extreme water temperature, it is yet unclear how extreme water temperatures change in a warming climate and how their hydro-meteorological drivers differ from those of non-extremes. This study aims to assess temporal changes and spatial variability in water temperature extremes and enhance our understanding of the driving processes across European mountain rivers in the current climate, at both a regional and continental scale. First, we describe the characteristics of extreme events and explore their relationships with catchment characteristics. Second, we assess trends in water temperature extremes and compare them with trends in mean water temperature. Third, we use random forest models to identify the main driving processes of water temperature extremes. Last, we conduct a co-occurrence analysis to examine the relationship between water temperature extremes and hydro-climatic extremes. Our results show that mean water temperature has increased by +0.38 +/- 0.14 ${+}0.38\pm 0.14$degrees C per decade, leading to more extreme events at high elevations in spring and summer. While non-extreme water temperatures are mainly driven by air temperature, water temperature extremes are also importantly influenced by soil moisture, baseflow, and meltwater. Our study highlights the complexity of water temperature dynamics in mountain rivers at the regional and continental scale, especially during water temperature extremes.

Investigation of mercury (Hg) from atmospheric precipitation is important for evaluating its ecological impacts and developing mitigation strategies. Western China, which includes the Tibetan Plateau and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, is one of the most remote region in the world and is understudied in regards to Hg precipitation. Here we report seesaw-like patterns in spatial variations of precipitation Hg in Western China, based on Hg speciation measurements at nine stations over this remote region. The Hg fraction analyzed included total Hg (HgT), particulate-bound Hg (HgP) and methylmercury (MeHg). Spatially, HgT concentrations and percentage of HgP in precipitation were markedly greater in the westerlies domain than those in the monsoon domain, but the higher wet HgT flux, MeHg concentration and percentage of MeHg in precipitation mainly occurred in the monsoon domain. Similar spatial patterns of wet Hg deposition were also obtained from GEOSChem modeling. We show that the disparity of anthropogenic and natural drivers between the two domains are mainly responsible for this seesaw-like spatial patterns of precipitation Hg in Western China. Our study may provide a baseline for assessment of environmental Hg pollution in Western China, and subsequently assist in protecting this remote alpine ecosystem.

Soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature (ST) are important indicators of environmental change in permafrost regions. In this study, we conducted soil sampling at 89 locations in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region (TRHR) to investigate the individual and synergistic effects of environmental factors on SWC and ST. We used multivariable regression and random forest modelling to analyse the data. The results show that SWC and ST were higher in the southeast TRHR than in the northwest and higher in surface layers than deeper soil layers. The most important factors affecting SWC in the 0-20 cm and 20-40 cm soil layers were soil bulk density and precipitation, while bulk density was the most important factor in the 40-60 cm layer, and soil bulk density and steppe vegetation were the most important factors in the 60-80 cm layer. For ST, altitude, temperature and slope gradient were the drivers in the 0-20 cm surface layer, while altitude and temperature were the most critical drivers in the 20-40 cm, 40-60 cm and 60-80 cm layers. Overall, bulk density and altitude were the key environmental factors influencing SWC and ST values, respectively. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights into the environmental factors that impact the SWC and ST in permafrost regions, which can guide decision-making processes for sustainable soil management in the context of climate change.

Rapid climate warming across northern high latitudes is leading to permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon release while simultaneously impacting other biogeochemical cycles including nitrogen. We used a two-year laboratory incubation study to quantify concomitant changes in carbon and nitrogen pool quantity and quality as drivers of potential CO2 production in thawed permafrost soils from eight soil cores collected across the southern Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. These data were contextualized via in situ annual thaw depth measurements from 2015 to 2019 at 40 study sites that varied in burn history. We found with increasing time since experimental thaw the dissolved carbon and nitrogen pool quality significantly declined, indicating sustained microbial processing and selective immobilization across both pools. Piecewise structural equation modeling revealed CO2 trends were predominantly predicted by initial soil carbon content with minimal influence of dissolved phase carbon. Using these results, we provide a first-order estimate of potential near-surface permafrost soil losses of up to 80 g C m(-2) over one year in southern NWT, exceeding regional historic mean primary productivity rates in some areas. Taken together, this research provides mechanistic knowledge needed to further constrain the permafrost-carbon feedback and parameterize system models, while building on empirical evidence that permafrost soils arc at high risk of becoming weaker carbon sinks or even significant carbon sources under a changing climate.

The tropical belt has widened during the last several decades, and both internal variability and anthropogenic forcings have contributed. Although greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion have been implicated as primary anthropogenic drivers of tropical expansion, the possible role of other drivers remains uncertain. Here, we analyze the tropical belt width response to idealized perturbations in multiple models. Our results show that absorbing black carbon (BC) aerosol drives tropical expansion, and scattering sulfate aerosol drives contraction. BC, especially from Asia, is more efficient per unit radiative forcing than greenhouse gases in driving tropical expansion, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Tropical belt expansion (contraction) is associated with an increase (decrease) in extratropical static stability induced by absorbing (scattering) aerosol. Although a formal attribution is difficult, scaling the normalized expansion rates to the historical time period suggests that BC is the largest driver of the Northern Hemisphere tropical widening but with relatively large uncertainty. Plain Language Summary The tropical belt has widened over the past several decades, and this is associated with poleward movement of the descending branches of the Hadley Cell and the subtropical dry zones. Internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcers-including greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion-are important contributors. Leveraging idealized single-forcing experiments, we show that anthropogenic aerosols, including black carbon and sulfate, drive significant tropical expansion and contraction, respectively. Aerosols, particularly those emitted from Asia, are more efficient than greenhouse gases in perturbing tropical belt width. Although relatively large uncertainty exists, linearized scaling suggests that black carbon is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere tropical widening over the historical time period.

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.