Numerous endorheic lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have shown a dramatic increase in total area since 1996. These expanding lakes are mainly located in the interior regions of the QTP, where permafrost is widely distributed. Despite significant permafrost degradation due to global warming, the impact of permafrost thawing on lake evolution in QTP has been underexplored. This study investigated the permafrost degradation and its correlation with lake area increase by selecting four lake basins (Selin Co, Nam Co, Zhari Namco, and Dangqiong Co) in QTP for analysis. Fluid-heat-ice coupled numerical models were conducted on the aquifer cross-sections in these four lake basins, to simulate permafrost thawing driven by rising surface temperatures, and calculate the subsequent changes in groundwater discharge into the lakes. The contribution of these changes to lake storage, which is proportional to lake area, was investigated. Numerical simulation indicates that from 1982 to 2011, permafrost degradation remained consistent across the four basins. During this period, the active layer thickness first increased, then decreased, and partially transformed into talik, with depths reaching up to 25 m. By 2011, groundwater discharge had significantly risen, exceeding 2.9 times the initial discharge in 1988 across all basins. This increased discharge now constitutes up to 17.67 % of the total lake water inflow (Selin Co). The dynamic lake water budget further suggests that groundwater contributed significantly to lake area expansion, particularly since 2000. These findings highlight the importance of considering permafrost thawing as a crucial factor in understanding the dynamics of lake systems in the QTP in the context of climate change.

The effects of the present global climate change appear more pronounced in high latitudes and alpine regions. Transitions zones, such as the southern fringe of the boreal region in northern Mongolia, are expected to experience drastic changes as a result. This area is dry and cold with forests forming only on the north-facing slopes of hills and grasslands distributing on the south-facing slopes, making it difficult for continuous forests to exist. However, in the Hovsgol Lake Basin, there is a vast continuous pure forest of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica). In other words, the lake water thawing/freezing process may have created a unique climatic environment that differs with the climate of the adjacent Darhad Basin, where no lake exists. Thus, in order to compare the effect of the thawing/freezing dynamics of lake water and the active layer on the thermal regime at each basin, respectively, temperatures were simultaneously measured. The Darhad Basin has similar latitude, topography, area, and elevation conditions. As expected, the presence of the lake affected the annual temperature amplitude, as it was 60% of that in the Darhad Basin. The difference in the seasonal freeze-thaw cycles of the lake and the active layer caused a significant difference in the thermal regime, especially in winter.

On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface-water storage define watershed hydrological processes. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for infrastructure construction, primarily ice roads and industrial operations. However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km(2) Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May-August), including minimum 7-day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre-perturbation conditions, and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low-rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, one to three summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (-56% to -69%) than LWW alone (-44% to -58%). Decadal-long consecutive LWW under average climate conditions resulted in a new equilibrium in low flow and seasonal runoff after 3 years that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced watershed contributing area (54% of total watershed area), and limited fish passage of 20 days (vs. 6 days under control conditions) throughout summer. Our results highlight that, even under current average climatic conditions, LWW is not offset by same-year snowmelt as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial LWWs.

Water resources are rich on the Tibetan Plateau, with large amounts of glaciers, lakes, and permafrost. Terrestrial water storage (TWS) on the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a significant change in recent decades. However, there is a lack of research about the spatial difference between TWSC and lake water storage change (LWSC), which is helpful to understand the response of water storage to climate change. In this study, we estimate the change in TWS, lake water storage (LWS), soil moisture, and permafrost, respectively, according to satellite and model data during 2005-2013 in the inner Tibetan Plateau and glacial meltwater from previous literature. The results indicate a sizeable spatial difference between TWSC and LWSC. LWSC was mainly concentrated in the northeastern part (18.71 +/- 1.35 Gt, 37.7% of the total) and southeastern part (22.68 +/- 1.63 Gt, 45.6% of the total), but the increased TWS was mainly in the northeastern region (region B, 18.96 +/- 1.26 Gt, 57%). Based on mass balance, LWSC was the primary cause of TWSC for the entire inner Tibetan Plateau. However, the TWS of the southeastern part increased by 3.97 +/- 2.5 Gt, but LWS had increased by 22.68 +/- 1.63 Gt, and groundwater had lost 16.91 +/- 7.26 Gt. The increased TWS in the northeastern region was equivalent to the increased LWS, and groundwater had increased by 4.47 +/- 4.87 Gt. Still, LWS only increased by 2.89 +/- 0.21 Gt in the central part, and the increase in groundwater was the primary cause of TWSC. These results suggest that the primary cause of increased TWS shows a sizeable spatial difference. According to the water balance, an increase in precipitation was the primary cause of lake expansion for the entire inner Tibetan Plateau, which contributed 73% (36.28 Gt) to lake expansion (49.69 +/- 3.58 Gt), and both glacial meltwater and permafrost degradation was 13.5%.

Lakes in permafrost regions are highly sensitive to changes in air temperature, snowmelt, and soil frost. In particular, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is one of the most sensitive regions in the world influenced by global climate change. In this study, we use retracked Enivsat radar altimeter measurements to generate water level change time series over Lake Qinghai and Lake Ngoring in the northeastern QTP and examine their relationships with precipitation and temperature changes. The response of water levels in Lake Qinghai and Lake Ngoring is positive with regards to precipitation amount. There is a negative relationship between water level and temperature change. These findings further the idea that the arid and high-elevation lakes in the northeastern QTP are highly sensitive to climate variations. Water level increases in Lake Qinghai in winter may indicate inputs of subsurface water associated with freeze-thaw cycles in the seasonally frozen ground and the active layer.