The response of Arctic vegetation to climate warming exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, driven partly by widespread permafrost degradation. However, the role of thermokarst lake development in mediating vegetation-climate interactions remains poorly understood, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes of northeastern Siberia. This study integrated multi-source remote sensing data (2001-2021) with trend analysis, partial correlation, and a Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP)-interpreted random forest model to examine the drivers of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) variability across five levels of thermokarst lake coverage (none, low, moderate, high, very high) and two vegetation types (forest, tundra). The results show that although greening dominates the region, browning is disproportionately observed in areas with high thermokarst lake coverage (>30%), highlighting the localized reversal of regional greening trends under intensified thermokarst activity. Air temperature was identified as the dominant driver of NDVI change, whereas soil temperature and soil moisture exerted secondary but critical influences, especially in tundra ecosystems with extensive thermokarst lake development. The relative importance of these factors shifted across thermokarst lake coverage gradients, underscoring the modulatory effect of thermokarst processes on vegetation-climate feedbacks. These findings emphasize the necessity of incorporating thermokarst dynamics and landscape heterogeneity into predictive models of Arctic vegetation change, with important implications for understanding cryospheric hydrology and ecosystem responses to ongoing climate warming.

Arctic and boreal permafrost ecosystems in Eastern Siberia, considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This study investigates carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange fluxes over northeastern Siberia from 2013 to 2015 in a taiga-tundra boundary ecosystem for which such measurements are scarce. The growing season (May-September) net CO2 exchange flux (NEE) was -39.4 (-60.1 to -20.2) gCm-2, with ecosystem respiration (RE) = 306.2 (288.1-317.9) gCm-2 and gross primary production (GPP) = -345.5 (-372.5 to -317.7) gCm-2. Microclimatic factors determining these CO2 exchange fluxes change seasonally. These fluxes are significantly affected by the timing of the onset of C uptake, which is reflected by changes in the soil temperature in spring and early summer, following which fluxes respond well to the photosynthetic photon flux density, especially for NEE. These CO2 exchange fluxes at the northeastern Siberian taiga-tundra boundary ecosystem are significantly smaller than those previously reported at southern-taiga forest sites. Spring snow meltwater-rich soil moisture conditions render southern-taiga sites as stronger CO2 sinks in June than taiga-tundra boundary ecosystem, which may be largely responsible for the pronounced north-south gradient in growing season NEE.