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Li, Ren

Accurate soil thermal conductivity (STC) data and their spatiotemporal variability are critical for the accurate simulation of future changes in Arctic permafrost. However, in-situ measured STC data remain scarce in the Arctic permafrost region, and the STC parameterization schemes commonly used in current land surface process models (LSMs) fail to meet the actual needs of accurate simulation of hydrothermal processes in permafrost, leading to considerable errors in the simulation results of Arctic permafrost. This study used the XGBoost method to simulate the spatial-temporal variability of the STC in the upper 5 cm active layer of Arctic permafrost during thawing and freezing periods from 1980 to 2020. The findings indicated STC variations between the thawing and freezing periods across different years, with values ranging from-0.4 to 0.28 W & sdot;m-1 & sdot;K-1. The mean STC during the freezing period was higher than that during the thawing period. Tundra, forest, and barren land exhibited the greatest sensitivity of STC to freeze-thaw transitions. This is the first study to explore the long-term spatiotemporal variations of STC in Arctic permafrost, and these findings and datasets can provide useful support for future research on Arctic permafrost evolution simulations.

期刊论文 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104793 ISSN: 0165-232X

Thawing permafrost alters climate not only through carbon emissions but also via energy-water feedback and atmospheric teleconnections. This review focuses on the Tibetan Plateau, where strong freeze-thaw cycles, intense radiation, and complex snow-vegetation interactions constitute non-carbon climate responses. We synthesize recent evidence that links freeze-thaw cycles, ground heat flux dynamics, and soil moisture hysteresis to latent heat feedback, monsoon modulation, and planetary wave anomalies. Across these pathways, both observational and simulation studies reveal consistent signals of feedback amplification and nonlinear threshold behavior. However, most Earth system models underrepresent these processes due to simplifications in freezethaw processes, snow-soil-vegetation coupling, and cross-seasonal memory effects. We conclude by identifying priority processes to better simulate multi-scale cryosphere-climate feedback, especially under continued climate warming in high-altitude regions.

期刊论文 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105248 ISSN: 0012-8252

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the circum-Arctic region, as the main distribution areas of high-altitude and high-latitude permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere, significantly influence regional climate, ecological, and hydrological systems through land-atmosphere energy and water exchange processes. This study analyzed the characteristic in the surface energy budget and regional differences in this parameter between the permafrost regions of the QTP (Tanggula site) and circum-Arctic (Tussock site) using meteorological observations and eddy covariance data. Additionally, potential causes of these differences were explored. The results showed seasonal variations and regional disparities in surface energy budgets between the two permafrost regions. At the Tanggula site, the sensible heat flux (H) dominated energy exchange during the cold seasons, while the latent heat flux (LE) dominated during monsoon periods. In contrast, at the Tussock site, H dominated year-round, including negative H during the cold seasons, with year-round suppression of LE. Meanwhile, at Tanggula, diurnal variations revealed single-peak patterns across different freeze-thaw stages, with H and LE responding significantly to changes in the net radiation flux (Rn). The Tussock site displayed a single-peak trend during thawing periods but experienced negative Rn during freezing periods, indicating that the surface energy budget is strongly impacted by freeze-thaw cycles. This study provides a basis for assessing climatic, ecological, hydrological, and engineering effects induced by rapid changes in permafrost.

期刊论文 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05840-1 ISSN: 0177-798X

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Arctic are prime examples of permafrost distribution in high-altitude and high-latitude regions. A nuanced understanding of soil thermal conductivity (STC) and the various influencing factors is essential for improving the accuracy of permafrost simulation models in these areas. Nevertheless, no comparative analysis of STC between these two regions has been conducted. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the characteristics and influencing factors of STC at varying depths within the active layer (5 to 60 cm) during freezing and thawing periods in the QTP and the Arctic, using the regional-scale STC data products simulated through the XGBoost method. The findings indicate the following: (1) the mean STC of permafrost in the QTP is higher than that in the Arctic permafrost region. The STC in the QTP demonstrates a declining trend over time, while the Arctic permafrost maintains relative stability. The mean STC values in the QTP permafrost region during the thawing period are significantly higher than those during the freezing period. (2) STC of the QTP exhibits a fluctuating pattern at different depths, in contrast, the average STC value in the Arctic increases steadily with depth, with an increase rate of approximately 0.005 Wm-1 K-1/cm. (3) The analysis of influencing factors revealed that although moisture content, bulk density, and porosity are the primary drivers of regional variations in STC between the QTP and the Arctic permafrost, moisture elements in the QTP region have a greater influence on STC and the effect is stronger with increasing depth and during the freeze-thaw cycles. Conversely, soil saturation, bulk density, and porosity in the Arctic have significant impacts. This study constitutes the first systematic comparative analysis of STC characteristics.

期刊论文 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2025.117409 ISSN: 0016-7061

Soil thermal conductivity (STC) plays a crucial role in regulating the energy distribution of both the surface and underground soil layers. It is widely applied in various fields, including engineering design, geothermal resource development and climate change research. A rapid and accurate estimation of STC remains a key focus in the study of soil thermodynamic parameters. However, the methods for estimating STC and their distinct characteristics have yet to be systematically reviewed. In this study, we used bibliometrics to comprehensively and systematically review the literature on STC, focusing on knowledge graph characteristics to analyze the development trend of calculation schemes. The main conclusions drawn from the study are as follows: (1) In recent years, most studies have been focused on soil thermal characteristics and their main contributing factors, the soil hydrothermal process in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, geothermal equipment and numerical simulations, and the exploration of geothermal resources. (2) A systematic review of various schemes indicates that no single scheme is universally applicable to all soil types. Moreover, a single parameterization scheme fails to meet the practical requirements of land surface process models. We evaluated the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional heat conduction schemes, parameterization schemes, and machine learning-based schemes and the findings suggest that a comprehensive scheme that integrates these three different schemes for STC simulations should be urgently developed.

期刊论文 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05483-2 ISSN: 0177-798X

Accurate understanding and modeling of soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions is essential for reliably assessing future permafrost changes and their impacts. However, the inadequate representation of soil water-heat transport processes in current land surface models (LSMs) introduces large uncertainty in simulating permafrost dynamics, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study, we modified the parameterizations of soil thermal conductivity, unfrozen water and soil evaporation resistance in version 5.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) and assessed their effects on soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions on the QTP using in-situ measurements the depths of 10-40 cm. The results showed that soil temperature was more sensitive to the modified soil thermal conductivity and unfrozen water schemes, with average RMSE reduced by approximately 0.60 degrees C compared to the default CLM5.0. Soil moisture was mainly affected the unfrozen water scheme during freezing and by the optimized soil evaporation resistance scheme during thawing, with maximum accuracy improvements of 8% and 25%, respectively. All three schemes significantly improved soil thermal conductivity simulations, reducing RMSE over 80%. Overall, our modifications remarkably reduced simulation errors compared to the default schemes, improving the average accuracy soil temperature, soil moisture and soil thermal conductivity by approximately 16%, 21% and 81% respectively. Additionally, this study emphasized the importance of accurately representing permafrost-related processes in LSMs, as they significantly affected simulation results. Specifically, soil thermodynamics is strongly sensitive to subtle changes in soil moisture transport processes, such as the hysteresis effect unfrozen water content, and parameterizations of snowpack and vegetation. Therefore, future work should focus on enhancing the accurate representations of these processes and optimized parameters in LSMs to improve the simulation accuracy in permafrost regions on the QTP. This study enhanced the understanding of soil hydrothermal processes in LSMs and provided valuable insights for the future model development for permafrost regions under the context of climate change.

期刊论文 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.006 ISSN: 1674-9278

Permafrost carbon could produce a positive climate feedback. Until now, the ecosystem carbon budgets in the permafrost regions remain uncertain. Moreover, the frequently used models have some limitations especially regarding to the freeze-thaw process. Herein, we improved the IBIS model by incorporating an unfrozen water scheme and by specifying the parameters to estimate the present and future carbon budget of different land cover types (desert steppe, steppe, meadow, and wet meadow) in the permafrost regions. Incorporating an unfrozen water scheme reduced the mean errors in the soil temperature and soil water content by 25.2%, and the specifying leaf area parameters reduced the errors in the net primary productivity (NPP) by 79.9%. Further, the simulation results showed that steppes are carbon sources (39.16 gC/m(2)/a) and the meadows are carbon sinks (-63.42 gC/m(2)/a ). Under the climate warming scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, the desert steppe and alpine steppe would assimilated more carbon, while the meadow and wet meadow were projected to shift from carbon sinks to carbon sources in 2071-2100, implying that the land cover type plays an important role in simulating the source/sink effects of permafrost ecosystem carbon in the IBIS model. The results highlight the importance of unfrozen water to the soil hydrothermal regime and specific leaf area for the growth of alpine vegetation, and present new insights on the difference of the responses of various permafrost ecosystems to climate warming.

期刊论文 2024-12-01 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105168 ISSN: 0341-8162

Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere has been degrading under climate change, affecting climatic, hydrological, and ecological systems. To reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of permafrost degradation under climate change, we quantified permafrost thermal states and active layer thicknesses using observational data covering various periods and different areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The soil temperatures at 20 cm depth in the circumpolar Arctic permafrost regions were much lower than in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The thaw period is 114 days in the circumpolar permafrost regions compared to 167 days in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The active layer thickness (ALT) was largest in transitional permafrost regions and sporadic permafrost regions, and lowest in the high latitude permafrost regions and continuous permafrost regions, and the ALT generally exhibited an increasing trend. The average ALT was 1.7 m, and increased by 3.6 cm per year in the Northern Hemisphere. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was largest in the high-altitude permafrost regions and isolated permafrost regions, and lowest in the high latitude permafrost regions and continuous permafrost regions. The warming rate of the MAGT was largest in the high latitude regions and lowest in the high altitude regions, and gradually increased from isolated permafrost regions to continuous permafrost regions, with an average warming rate of 0.3 degrees C per decade for the whole Northern Hemisphere. These findings provide important information for understanding the variability in permafrost degradation processes across different regions under climate change.

期刊论文 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2024.108440 ISSN: 0341-8162

Exploring the complex relationship between the freeze-thaw cycle and the surface energy budget (SEB) is crucial for deepening our comprehension of climate change. Drawing upon extensive field monitoring data of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this study examines how surface energy accumulation influences the thawing depth. Combined with Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5.0), a sensitivity test was designed to explore the interplay between the freeze-thaw cycle and the SEB. It is found that the freeze-thaw cycle process significantly alters the distribution of surface energy fluxes, intensifying energy exchange between the surface and atmosphere during phase transitions. In particular, an increase of 65.6% is observed in the ground heat flux during the freezing phase, which subsequently influences the sensible and latent heat fluxes. However, it should be noted that CLM5.0 has limitations in capturing the minor changes in soil moisture content and thermal conductivity during localized freezing events, resulting in an imprecise representation of the complex freeze-thaw dynamics in cold regions. Nevertheless, these results offer valuable insights and suggestions for improving the parameterization schemes of land surface models, enhancing the accuracy and applicability of remote sensing applications and climate research.

期刊论文 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.3390/land13101609

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is very important in the vulnerable ecological environment of the Third Pole; however, data regarding the spatial distribution of SOC are still scarce and uncertain. Based on multiple environmental variables and soil profile data from 458 pits (depth of 0-1 m) and 114 cores (depth of 0-3 m), this study uses a machine-learning approach to evaluate the SOC storage and spatial distribution at a depth interval of 0-3m in the frozen ground area of the Third Pole region. Our results showed that SOC stocks (SOCSs) exhibited a decreasing spatial pattern from the southeast towards the northwest. The estimated SOC storage in the upper 3m of the soil profile was 46.18 Pg for an area of 3.27 x 10(6) km(2), which included 21.69 and 24.49 Pg for areas of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground`, respectively. Our results provide information on the storage and patterns of SOCSs at a 1 km resolution for areas of frozen ground in the Third Pole region, thus providing a scientific basis for future studies pertaining to Earth system models.

期刊论文 2024-09-01 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3453-2021 ISSN: 1866-3508
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