In contrast to boreal winter when extratropical seasonal predictions benefit greatly from ENSO-related teleconnections, our understanding of forecast skill and sources of predictability in summer is limited. Based on 40 years of hindcasts of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System, version 3 (CanSIPSv3), this study shows that predictions for the Northern Hemisphere summer surface air temperature are skillful more than 6 months in advance in several midlatitude regions, including eastern Europe-Middle East, central Siberia-Mongolia-North China, and the western United States. These midlatitude regions of statistically significant predictive skill appear to be connected to each other through an upper-tropospheric circumglobal wave train. Although a large part of the forecast skill for the surface air temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height is attributable to the linear trend associated with global warming, there is signifi- cant long-lead seasonal forecast skill related to interannual variability. Two additional idealized hindcast experiments are performed to help shed light on sources of the long-lead forecast skill using one of the CanSIPSv3 models and its uncoupled version. It is found that tropical ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the forecast skill in the western United States, while land surface conditions in winter, including snow cover and soil moisture, in the Siberian and western U.S. regions have a delayed or long-lasting impact on the atmosphere, which leads to summer forecast skill in these regions. This implies that improving land surface initial conditions and model representation of land surface processes is crucial for the further development of a seasonal forecasting system.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts strong powerful thermal forcing, which plays a vital role in influencing weather-climate variations in Asia and even the Northern Hemisphere. However, the causes of thermal variation over the TP have not been fully revealed. Here, the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer thermal anomalies on the TP was investigated through multisource datasets for the period 1979-2014. Results indicate a significant positive rela-tionship (r 5 0.52) between winter SM and subsequent summer-mean surface air temperature (SAT). Further investigations show that more (less) winter SM results in abundant (deficient) atmospheric water vapor in subsequent summer owing to its persistence. Furthermore, Earth's surface energy budget equation confirms that strengthened (weakened) surface downward longwave radiation caused by increased (decreased) water vapor is the dominant factor leading to SAT variations, even more significant for nocturnal SAT. The winter SM-atmospheric temperature positive relationship can extend from the sur-face to 200 hPa over the TP. In addition, the enhanced (weakened) atmospheric latent heat release associated with increased (decreased) water vapor content may be another important factor contributing to changes in atmospheric temperatures over the TP. Therefore, our results contribute to a better understanding of the effect of land-surface processes on thermal anoma-lies over the TP. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Understanding the causes of thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for weather and climate variations, but the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer ther-mal effects is largely unknown. This study investigated the relationship between winter SM and thermal anomalies in subsequent summers on the TP. Results show that the above (below)-normal winter SM will cause warm (cold) atmospheric temperatures in the subsequent summer. The above (below)-normal winter SM anomalies bring increased (decreased) atmospheric water vapor in summer owing to its persistence, resulting in strengthened (weakened) down-ward longwave radiation and atmospheric latent heat release to heat (cool) the atmosphere.

Exploring the premonsoonal land thermal predictor of the Indian summer monsoon is a hot topic under the background of global warming, and West Asia is one of the regions with the most significant warming in spring. In this study, we investigated the impact of anomalous spring land surface warming over West Asia on early summer (June) Indian monsoon precipitation as well as its possible mechanisms based on statistical analysis and numerical simulations. It has been found that spring land surface anomalous warming over West Asia corresponds to the enhancement of the leading mode of early summer precipitation in the Indian subcontinent, especially in its northern part. Further analysis indicates that an anomalously warm land surface over West Asia can advance the transition of atmospheric conditions toward the warm season by heating the atmosphere above. The increased land-sea meridional thermal contrast favors the intensification of the low-level jet and monsoon trough, further inducing anomalous moisture convergence and ascending motion over northern India. Additionally, the heat-driven anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclone over West Asia favors the intensification of the tropical easterly jet and the northwestward development of the South Asian high (SAH). The enhanced SAH dynamically couples with the lower- to middle-level cyclonic circulation over northern India, resulting in a stronger monsoon and increased precipitation. These findings are helpful for better understanding and prediction of Indian early summer monsoon. Significance StatementThe land surface thermal condition is critical to the monsoon activity and exploring the premonsoonal land thermal predictor of Indian summer monsoon remains a hot topic. The purpose of this study is to explore how spring land surface thermal anomalies over West Asia impact Indian monsoon activity in early summer (June). The anomalous land surface warming over West Asia can lead to a stronger Indian monsoon in early summer by heating and driving the atmosphere, which benefits the precipitation increase over northern India. Our results provide a further scientific basis for the prediction of early summer Indian precipitation.

The impact of various modifications of the JSBACH land surface model to represent soil temperature and cold-region hydro-thermodynamic processes in climate projections of the twenty-first century is examined. We explore the sensitivity of JSBACH to changes in the soil thermodynamics, energy balance and storage, and the effect of including freezing and thawing processes. The changes involve 1) the net effect of an improved soil physical representation and 2) the sensitivity of our results to changed soil parameter values and their contribution to the simulation of soil temperatures and soil moisture, both aspects being presented in the frame of an increased bottom boundary depth from 9.83 to 1418.84 m. The implementation of water phase changes and supercooled water in the ground creates a coupling between the soil thermal and hydrological regimes through latent heat exchange. Momentous effects on subsurface temperature of up to +/- 3 K, together with soil drying in the high northern latitudes, can be found at regional scales when applying improved hydro-thermodynamic soil physics. The sensitivity of the model to different soil parameter datasets is relatively low but shows important implications for the root zone soil moisture content. The evolution of permafrost under preindustrial forcing conditions emerges in simulated trajectories of stable states that differ by 4-6 x 10(6) km(2) and shows large differences in the spatial extent of 10(5)-10(6) km(2) by 2100, depending on the model configuration.

Precipitation is crucial for life and the ecological environment in Asian drylands. This study investigated precipitation trends in Asian drylands in the previous four decades and simulated their possible linkage with snow cover reduction over the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that precipitation has been increasing and contributing to wetter conditions in Asian drylands. The increasing trends can be attributed to the deepened quasi-stationary wave trough around Lake Balkhash and the meridional water vapor flux originating from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The midlatitude waves and eddy disturbances correspond to the northward upper-level Tibetan Plateau (TP) mode of the South Asian high (TP-SAH) and the Afro-Asian jet with cyclonic rotation. Both SAH and Afro-Asian jet anomalies strengthen the ascending motion and northward water vapor convergence in Asian drylands, and those are favorable for summer precipitation. The anomalous circulations are linked to the following factors. First, the reduced snow cover (SC) over the west TP in the late spring results in decreasing soil moisture and increasing diabatic heating in summer and favors northward extension of TP-SAH and the Afro-Asian jet. Second, the reduced TP SC increases surface temperature over the TP and northeast Asia, which decreases the temperature gradient between the TP and the Indian Ocean, between northeast Asia and East Asia. Decreased temperature gradients are beneficial to the southwest-northeast cyclonic rotation of the Afro-Asian jet and consequently strengthen the southerly wind and northward water vapor flux over the TP and surrounding regions. This study emphasizes important effects of the reducing TP SC on intensifying summer precipitation in Asian drylands.

The warming-induced growth of vegetation in the Arctic is responsible for various climate feedbacks. Snow-vegetation interactions are currently thought to increase the snow-insulating capacity in the Arctic and thus to limit soil winter cooling. Here, we focus on autumn and early winter processes to evaluate the impact of the presence of erect shrubs and small trees on soil temperature and freezing. We use snow height and thermal conductivity data monitored near Umiujaq, a low-Arctic site in northern Quebec, Canada (56 degrees N, 76 degrees W), to estimate the snow thermal insulance in different vegetation covers. We furthermore conducted a field campaign in autumn 2015. Results show that the occurrence of melting at the beginning of the snow season counteracted the soil warming effect of snow-vegetation interactions. Refrozen layers on the surface prevented wind drift and the preferential accumulation of snow in shrubs or trees. Snowmelt was more intense in high vegetation covers, where the formation of refrozen layers of high thermal conductivity at the base of the snowpack facilitated the release of soil heat, accelerating its cooling. Consequently, the soil was not necessarily the warmest under high vegetation covers as long as melting events occurred. We conclude that under conditions where melting events become more frequent in autumn, as expected under climate warming, conditions become more favorable to maintain a negative feedback among the growth of erect vegetation, snow, and soil temperature in the Arctic, rather than a positive feedback as described under colder climates.

The Durance watershed (14 000 km(2)), located in the French Alps, generates 10% of French hydropower and provides drinking water to 3 million people. The Catchment land surface model (CLSM), a distributed land surface model (LSM) with a multilayer, physically based snow model, has been applied in the upstream part of this watershed, where snowfall accounts for 50% of the precipitation. The CLSM subdivides the upper Durance watershed, where elevations range from 800 to 4000 m within 3580 km(2), into elementary catchments with an average area of 500 km(2). The authors first show the difference between the dynamics of the accumulation and ablation of the snow cover using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and snow-depth measurements. The extent of snow cover increases faster during accumulation than during ablation because melting occurs at preferential locations. This difference corresponds to the presence of a hysteresis in the snow-cover depletion curve of these catchments, and the CLSM was adapted by implementing such a hysteresis in the snow-cover depletion curve of the model. Different simulations were performed to assess the influence of the parameterizations on the water budget and the evolution of the extent of the snow cover. Using six gauging stations, the authors demonstrate that introducing a hysteresis in the snow-cover depletion curve improves melting dynamics. They conclude that their adaptation of the CLSM contributes to a better representation of snowpack dynamics in an LSM that enables mountainous catchments to be modeled for impact studies such as those of climate change.