The thermal coupling between the atmosphere and the subsurface on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) governs permafrost stability, surface energy balance, and ecosystem processes, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics under accelerated warming are poorly understood. This study quantifies soil-atmosphere thermal coupling ((3) at the critical 0.1 m root-zone depth using in-situ data from 99 sites (1980-2020) and a machine learning framework. Results show significantly weaker coupling in permafrost (PF) zones (mean (3 = 0.42) than in seasonal frost (SF) zones (mean (3 = 0.50), confirming the powerful thermal buffering of permafrost. Critically, we find a widespread trend of weakening coupling (decreasing (3) at 66.7 % of sites, a phenomenon most pronounced in SF zones. Our driver analysis reveals that the spatial patterns of (3 are primarily controlled by surface insulation from summer rainfall and soil moisture. The temporal trends, however, are driven by a complex and counter-intuitive interplay. Paradoxically, rapid atmospheric warming is the strongest driver of a strengthening of coupling, likely due to the loss of insulative snow cover, while trends toward wetter conditions drive a weakening of coupling by enhancing surface insulation. Spatially explicit maps derived from our models pinpoint hotspots of accelerated decoupling in the eastern and southern QTP, while also identifying high-elevation PF regions where coupling is strengthening, signaling a loss of protective insulation and increased vulnerability to degradation. These findings highlight a dynamic and non-uniform response of land-atmosphere interactions to climate change, with profound implications for the QTP's cryosphere, hydrology, and ecosystems.

Infrastructure in northern regions is increasingly threatened by climate change, mainly due to permafrost thaw. Prediction of permafrost stability is essential for assessing the long-term stability of such infrastructure. A key aspect of geotechnical problems subject to climate change is addressing the surface energy balance (SEB). In this study, we evaluated three methodologies for applying surface boundary conditions in longterm thermal geotechnical analyses, including SEB heat flux, n-factors, and machine learning (ML) models by using ERA5-Land climate reanalysis data until 2100. We aimed to determine the most effective approach for accurately predicting ground surface temperatures for climate-resilient design of northern infrastructure. The evaluation results indicated that the ML-based approach outperformed both the SEB heat flux and n-factors methods, demonstrating significantly lower prediction errors. The feasibility of long-term thermal analysis of geotechnical problems using ML-predicted ground surface temperatures was then demonstrated through a permafrost case study in the community of Salluit in northern Canada, for which the thickness of the active layer and talik were calculated under moderate and extreme climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Finally, we discussed the application and limitations of surface boundary condition methodologies, such as the limited applicability of the n-factors in long-term analysis and the sensitivity of the SEB heat flux to inputs and thermal imbalance. The findings highlight the importance of selecting suitable boundary condition methodologies in enhancing the reliability of thermal geotechnical analyses in cold regions.

Widespread dieback of natural Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) forests in Hulunbuir sandy land since 2018 has raised concerns about their sustainability in afforestation programs. We hypothesized that this dieback is driven by two interrelated mechanisms: (1) anthropogenic fire suppression disrupting natural fire regime, and (2) climate change-induced winter warming reducing snow cover duration and depth. To test these, we quantified dieback using Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) across stands with varying fire histories via UAV-based multispectral imagery, alongside long-term climatic observations (1960-2024) of temperature, precipitation, and snow dynamics from meteorological stations combined with remote sensing datasets. Results showed that an abrupt change point in 2018 for both annual precipitation and mean temperature was identified, coinciding with dieback. Significant negative linear relationship between GNDVI (forest health) and last fire interval indicated prolonged fire exclusion exacerbating dieback, possibly via pathogen/pest accumulation. Winter temperature rose significantly during 1960-2023, with notable acceleration following abrupt change point in 1987. Concurrently, winters during 2018-2023 exhibited pronounced warming, with snow cover duration reduced by 23 days and snow depth diminished by 7.6 cm. These conditions reduced snowmelt -derived soil moisture (critical water source) recharge in early spring, exacerbating drought stress during critical growth periods and predisposing trees to pest and disease infestations. Our results support both hypotheses, demonstrating that dieback is synergistically driven by fire regime alteration and climate-mediated snowpack reductions. Converting pure pine forests into mixed pine-broadleaf forests via differentiated water sources was proposed to restore ecological resilience in sandy ecosystems.

The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) is located on the Tibetan Plateau, within a transitional zone between seasonally frozen ground and continuous permafrost. Over 70 % of the region is predominantly covered by alpine grasslands, a vulnerable ecosystem increasingly threatened by ongoing permafrost degradation. This study utilized satellite data to analyze permafrost degradation by measuring active layer thickness (ALT) and the soil non-frozen period (NFP), and to investigate their impacts on alpine grassland growth. Results showed significant permafrost degradation from 2000 to 2020, with ALT thickening at a rate of 7.79 cm/decade (p < 0.05) and NFP lengthening by 1.1 days/yr (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, grassland vegetation exhibited a significant greening trend (0.0014 yr(-1), p < 0.01). Using the partial least squares (PLS) regression method, the study evaluated the relationships between grassland dynamics and permafrost degradation, while jointly accounting for climate variables (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration). ALT thickening was the dominant explanatory variable for grassland growth in 11.09 % of the region, and it was positively correlated in relatively cold western and alpine areas, but negatively correlated in the relatively warm eastern and central regions. NFP extension was the dominant explanatory variable for grassland growth in 10.38 % of the region, although its positive correlation weakened as climate conditions transitioned from relatively cold-dry to relatively warm-wet. Although permafrost degradation was positively correlated with grassland greening in relatively cold regions, the diminishing benefit of NFP extension and the adverse effects of ALT thickening may increasingly undermine grassland stability in relatively warm regions under further climate warming.

The freeze-thaw erosion zone of the Tibetan Plateau (FTZTP) maintains an ecologically fragile system with enhanced thermal sensitivity under climate warming. Vegetation phenology in this cryosphere-dominated environment acts as a crucial biophysical indicator of climate variability, showing potentially amplified responses to environmental changes relative to other ecosystems. To investigate vegetation phenological characteristics and their climate responses, we derived key phenological parameters (the start, end and length of growing season-SOS, EOS, LOS) for the FTZTP from 2001 to 2021 using MODIS EVI data and analysed their spatiotemporal patterns and climatic drivers. Results indicated that the spatial distribution of phenology was highly heterogeneous, influenced by local climate, complex topography and diverse vegetation. SOS generally exhibited a delayed trend from east to west, while EOS was progressively later from the central plateau towards the southeast and southwest. Consequently, LOS shortened along both east-west and south-north gradients. Under sustained warming and wetting, the region experienced intensified freeze-thaw cycles, characterised by a delayed freeze-start, advanced thaw-end and shortened freeze-thaw duration. Both climate warming and freeze-thaw changes drove an overall significant advancement of SOS (-3.1 days/decade), delay of EOS (+2.2 days/decade) and extension of LOS (+5.3 days/decade) over the 21-year period. Notably, an abrupt phenological shift occurred around 2015. Prior to 2015, both SOS and EOS advanced, whereas afterward, SOS transitioned to a delaying trend and EOS exhibited a markedly stronger delay, leading to a pronounced extension of LOS. This regime shift was primarily attributed to changes in hydrothermal conditions controlled by climate warming and evolving freeze-thaw dynamics, with temperature being the dominant factor and precipitation exerting seasonally differential effects. Our findings elucidate the complex responses of alpine cryospheric ecosystems to climate change, revealing freeze-thaw processes as a key modulator of vegetation phenology.

Arctic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to ongoing and projected climate change. Rapid warming and growing anthropogenic pressure are driving a profound transformation of these regions, increasingly positioning the Arctic as a persistent, globally significant source of greenhouse gases. In the Russian Arctic-a critical zone for national economic growth and transport infrastructure-intensive development is replacing natural ecosystems with anthropogenically modified ones. In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) represent a vital tool for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, many NbS successfully applied globally have limited applicability in the Arctic due to its inaccessibility, short growing season, low temperatures, and permafrost. This review demonstrates the potential for adapting existing NbS and developing new ones tailored to the Arctic's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. We analyze five key NbS pathways: forest management, sustainable grazing, rewilding, wetland conservation, and ecosystem restoration. Our findings indicate that protective and restorative measures are the most promising; these can deliver measurable benefits for both climate, biodiversity and traditional land-use. Combining NbS with biodiversity offset mechanisms appears optimal for preserving ecosystems while enhancing carbon sequestration in biomass and soil organic matter and reducing soil emissions. The study identifies critical knowledge gaps and proposes priority research areas to advance Arctic-specific NbS, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary carbon cycle studies, integrated field and remote sensing data, and predictive modeling under various land-use scenarios.

As a critical ecological barrier in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern China, the spatio-temporal evolution of vegetation carbon sequestration in the Hexi Corridor is of great significance to the ecological security of this region. Based on multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data, this study integrated second-order partial correlation analysis, ridge regression, and other methods to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) in the Hexi Corridor from 2003 to 2022, as well as the response characteristics of GPP to air temperature, precipitation, and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). From 2003 to 2022, GPP in the Hexi Corridor showed an overall increasing trend, the spatial distribution of GPP showed a pattern of being higher in the east and lower in the west. In the central oasis region, intensive irrigation agriculture supported consistently high GPP values with sustained growth. Elevated air temperatures extended the growing season, further promoting GPP growth. Due to irrigation and sufficient soil moisture, the contributions of precipitation and VPD were relatively low. In contrast, desert and high-altitude permafrost areas, constrained by water and heat limitations, exhibited consistently low GPP values, which further declined due to climate fluctuations. In desert regions, high air temperatures intensified evaporation, suppressing GPP, while precipitation and VPD played more significant roles. This study provides a detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal change patterns of GPP in the Hexi Corridor and its response to climatic factors. In the future, the Hexi Corridor needs to adopt dual approaches of natural restoration and precise regulation, coordinate ecological security, food security, and economic development, and provide a scientific paradigm for carbon neutrality and ecological barrier construction in arid areas of Northwest China.

Studying permafrost changes under different (e.g., glacial/interglacial) and changing (e.g., current various scenarios) climates can potentially advance our understanding of permafrost's responses to climate change and further enable informed policy making for mitigating impacts from permafrost changes. Despite existing studies generally focusing on permafrost change during certain periods, here, we have synthetically examined the changes of the Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost during the six periods (Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, similar to 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, similar to 6 ka), preindustrial (PI, ca 1850), future 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming periods, and end of the 21st century), using the surface frost index (SFI) model and outputs of six climate models. Simulated climate anomalies plus present-day observed climatology are used to drive the SFI model in this study. This helps correct systematic biases in permafrost change simulations.The results show that multi-model ensemble extent of present-day near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere agree well with the observations, with an area bias of 0.27x106 km2 in area (1.8% of the total observed area). Minor deviations (1.55x106 km2) in the simulated present-day permafrost extents across the climate models indicate a low inter-model diversity. In response to changes in annual mean surface air temperature of -10.3 +/- 2.3 degrees C (LGM), +0.1 +/- 0.5 degrees C (MH), +2.6 +/- 0.7 degrees C (1.5 degrees C global warming, RCP4.5), +3.6 +/- 1.0 degrees C (2.0 degrees C global warming, RCP4.5), and +5.0 +/- 1.3 degrees C (end of the 21st century, RCP4.5) in present-day permafrost regions relative to the PI, the changes in near-surface permafrost area are +33%+/- 30% (LGM), -13%+/- 6% (MH), -25%+/- 8% (1.5 degrees C warming, RCP4.5), -35% +/- 10% (2.0 degrees C warming, RCP4.5), and -55%+/- 12% (end of the 21st century, RCP4.5), respectively. From the LGM to the future, near-surface permafrost extent substantially decreases, underlining its high sensitivity to climate change and implying its potentially profound impacts in a warming future.

Permafrost thaw and thermokarst development pose urgent challenges to Arctic communities, threatening infrastructure and essential services. This study examines the reciprocal impacts of permafrost degradation and infrastructure in Point Lay (Kali), Alaska, drawing on field data from similar to 60 boreholes, measured and modeled ground temperature records, remote sensing analysis, and community interviews. Field campaigns from 2022-2024 reveal widespread thermokarst development and ground subsidence driven by the thaw of ice-rich permafrost. Borehole analysis confirms excess-ice contents averaging similar to 40%, with syngenetic ice wedges extending over 12 m deep. Measured and modeled ground temperature data indicate a warming trend, with increasing mean annual ground temperatures and active layer thickness (ALT). Since 1949, modeled ALTs have generally deepened, with a marked shift toward consistently thicker ALTs in the 21st century. Remote sensing shows ice wedge thermokarst expanded from 60% in developed areas by 2019, with thaw rates increasing tenfold between 1974 and 2019. In contrast, adjacent, undisturbed tundra exhibited more consistent thermokarst expansion (similar to 0.2% yr(-1)), underscoring the amplifying role of infrastructure, surface disturbance, and climate change. Community interviews reveal the lived consequences of permafrost degradation, including structural damage to homes, failing utilities, and growing dependence on alternative water and wastewater strategies. Engineering recommendations include deeper pile foundations, targeted ice wedge stabilization, aboveground utilities, enhanced snow management strategies, and improved drainage to mitigate ongoing infrastructure issues. As climate change accelerates permafrost thaw across the Arctic, this study highlights the need for integrated, community-driven adaptation strategies that blend geocryological research, engineering solutions, and local and Indigenous knowledge.

Highlights What are the main findings? Variations in hazard-prone environments dominate the spatial heterogeneity of multi-hazard distribution. Thermal hazard susceptibility is expected to increase greatly by the end of the century due to permafrost degradation. What is the implication of the main findings? Segmented assessment can effectively improve evaluation accuracy and model interpretability. Thermal hazards exhibit significant sensitivity to climate change, while gravity hazards do not.Highlights What are the main findings? Variations in hazard-prone environments dominate the spatial heterogeneity of multi-hazard distribution. Thermal hazard susceptibility is expected to increase greatly by the end of the century due to permafrost degradation. What is the implication of the main findings? Segmented assessment can effectively improve evaluation accuracy and model interpretability. Thermal hazards exhibit significant sensitivity to climate change, while gravity hazards do not.Abstract With climate change, the Qinghai-Tibet Highway (QTH) is facing increasingly severe risks of natural hazards, posing a significant threat to its normal operation. However, the types, distribution, and future risks of hazards along the QTH are still unclear. In this study, we established an inventory of multi-hazards along the QTH by remote sensing interpretation and field validation, including landslides, debris flows, thaw slumps, and thermokarst lakes. The QTH was segmented into three sections based on hazard distribution and environmental factors. Susceptibility modelling was performed for each hazard within each using machine learning models, followed by further evaluation of hazard susceptibility under future climate change scenarios. The results show that, at present, approximately 15.50% of the area along the QTH exhibits high susceptibility to multi-hazards, with this proportion projected to increase to 20.85% and 23.32% under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 distant future scenarios, respectively. Variations in hazard-prone environments dominate the spatial heterogeneity of multi-hazard distribution. Gravity hazards demonstrate limited sensitivity to climate change, whereas thermal hazards exhibit a more pronounced response. Our geomorphology-based segmented assessment framework effectively enhances evaluation accuracy and model interpretability. The results can provide critical insights for the operation, maintenance, and hazard risk management of the QTH.