Climate change is reshaping the risk landscape for natural gas pipelines, with landslides emerging as a major driver of technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (Natech events). Conventional Natech risk models rarely incorporate climate-sensitive parameters such as groundwater levels and soil moisture, limiting their capacity to capture evolving threats. This study develops a probabilistic model that explicitly links climate-driven landslide susceptibility to pipeline vulnerability, providing a quantitative basis for assessing pipeline failure probability under different emission projection scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulations across five regions in China, the results show that under high-emission pathways (SSP5-8.5), pipeline failure probability in summer increases dramatically. For example, from 0.320 to 0.943 in Xinjiang, 0.112 to 0.220 in Sichuan, and 0.087 to 0.188 in Hainan. In cold regions, winter failure probability more than doubles, rising from 0.206 to 0.501 in Heilongjiang and from 0.235 to 0.488 in Beijing. These shifts reveal an overall increase in risk, intensification of seasonal contrasts, and, in some areas, a reconfiguration of high-risk periods. Sensitivity analysis highlights groundwater levels and soil moisture as the dominant drivers, with regional differences shaped by precipitation regimes, permafrost thaw, and typhoon impacts. Building on these insights, this study proposes an AI-based condition-monitoring framework that integrates real-time climate and geotechnical data to support adaptive early warning and safety management.

Black carbon (BC) mixed with non-BC components strongly absorbs visible light and leads to uncertainty in assessing the absorption enhancement (Eabs) and thus radiative forcing. Traditional Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) combined with the leading-edge only fitting (the only-SP2 method) derives BC's mixing states through Mie scattering calculations. However, errors exist in retrieved optical diameter (Dopt) and MR due to the assumption of the ideal spherical core-shell structure and the selection of the calculation parameters like density and refractive index (RI) of the components. Here, we employed a custom-developed tandem CPMA-SP2 system, which classifies fixed-mass BC to characterize the mixing state, then compared with the only-SP2 method in quantifying the mixing state and Eabs. The field measurements show that the SP2 demonstrates variability in assessing the mixing state of BC in different aging states. The thickly-coated particles with small core approaching the internally mixed state are more sensitive to the change of calculated RI. The Dopt decreases with the RI increasing, indicating that this method accurately measures both Dopt and Eabs when a reasonable refractive index is selected for calculation. However, for thinly-coated particles with moderate or large core, this method results in significant deviations in the computed Eabs (errors up to 15 %). These deviations may be caused by the various shapes of BC and systematic errors. Our results provide valuable insights into the accuracy of the SP2-retrieved Dopt and MR based on Mie calculations and highlight the importance of employing advanced techniques for further assessment of BC's mixing state.

Large-scale wildfires are essential sources of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), affecting aerosol-induced radiative forcing. This study investigated the impact of two wildfire plumes (Plume 1 and 2) transported to Moscow on the optical properties of BC and BrC during August 2022. During the wildfires, the total light absorption at 370 nm (b(abs_370nm)) increased 2.3-3.4 times relative to background (17.30 +/- 13.98 Mm(-)(1)), and the BrC contribution to total absorption increased from 14 % to 42-48 %. BrC was further partitioned into primary (BrCPri) and secondary (BrCSec) components. Biomass burning accounted for similar to 83-90 % of BrCPri during the wildfires. The b(abs_370nm) of BrCPri increased 5.6 times in Plume 1 and 11.5 times in Plume 2, due to the higher prevalence of peat combustion in Plume 2. b(abs_370nm) of BrCSec increased 8.3-9.6 times, driven by aqueous-phase processing, as evidenced by strong correlations between aerosol liquid water content and b(abs_370nm) of BrCSec. Daytime b(abs_370nm) of BrCSec increased 7.6 times in Plume 1 but only 3.6 times in Plume 2, due to more extensive photobleaching, as indicated by negative correlations with oxidant concentrations and longer transport times. The radiative forcing of BrCPri relative to BC increased 1.8 times in Plume 1 and Plume 2. In contrast, this increase for BrCSec was 3.4 times in Plume 1 but only 2.3 times in Plume 2, due to differences in chemical processes, which may result in higher uncertainty in its radiative forcing. Future work should prioritize elucidating both the emissions and atmospheric processes to better quantify wildfire-derived BrC and its radiative forcing.

Recent climate warming has accelerated permafrost thaw and dynamics of thermokarst lakes (TLs) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Yet, owing to the lack of long-term monitoring of TLs, our understanding of lake evolution processes and their driving factors remains uncertain. Here, using the global surface water product and timeseries Landsat imagery, we identified 58,538 TLs (0.01-3 km2) and determined the primary occurrence year of lake changes from 1990 to 2022. Our results indicated that TLs on the TP are primarily located in the central inland region, over 82 % of lakes experienced area expansion, and only 15 % in the northwest show decrease in area. Annual number of lake expansion peaked in 2016, whereas lake shrinkage was most common in 2019. The calculated lake area errors, field investigations, and validation of lake disturbance time demonstrated high accuracy and consistency. We applied the optimal machine learning regression model to distinguish the different drivers for lake expansion and shrinkage. The topographic and climatic factors are primary drivers for lake expansion, while differences in evaporation trend and soil temperature trend might contribute to lake shrinkage. This study highlights the vulnerability of permafrost on the TP to climate change, which can contribute to carbon sequestration estimation and infrastructure maintenance.

The critical role of light-absorbing aerosol black carbon (BC) in modifying the Earth's atmosphere and climate system warrants detailed characterization of its microphysical properties. The present study examines the BC microphysical properties (size distributions and mixing state) and their impact on the light-absorption characteristics over a semi-urban tropical coastal location in Southern Peninsular India. The measurements of refractory BC (rBC) properties, carried out using the single particle soot photometer during 2018-2021, covering four distinct air mass conditions (Marine, Continental, Mixed-1, and Mixed-2), were used for this purpose. These were supported by measurements of non-refractory submicron particulate matter (NR-PM1) mass loadings and the core-shell Mie theory model for BC-containing particles. The results suggested that the BC particles exhibited varying sizes (mass median diameters from 0.181 +/- 0.079 mu m to 0.202 +/- 0.064 mu m) and relative coating thicknesses (RCT) (1.3-1.6) under distinct air mass conditions. These characteristics reflected varying source/sink strengths, aging processes of BC, and potential condensable coating material. The aerosol system during the Marine air mass period has lower BC (similar to 0.67 +/- 0.57 mu g m(-3)) and NR-PM1 (12.06 +/- 10.81 mu g m(-3)) mass concentrations, and the lowest RCT on BC (similar to 1.34 +/- 0.14). However, the other periods with continental influence depicted significant coatings on BC (mean RCT >1.5). The coatings on BC particles exhibited daytime enhancement, driven by photochemically produced condensable material, a contrasting diurnal pattern to that of other BC properties. Interestingly, the RCT on BC increased and/or remained invariant with increasing relative humidity (RH) until RH 85 %), indicating the potential role of secondary organics as coatings. The changes in the BC mixing state resulted in a significant alteration to its light-absorption properties. The mean light-absorption enhancement of BC (compared to uncoated BC) ranged from 1.36 +/- 0.14 for the Marine air mass periods to 1.58 +/- 0.15 for the Continental air mass periods, whereas the overall mass absorption cross-sections of BC varied between 7.91 +/- 0.91 to 9.03 +/- 0.84 m(2)/g at 550 nm. The key implication of this study is that changes to the BC mixing state, caused by multiple underlying processes unique to tropical atmospheric conditions, can lead to a significant enhancement in its light-absorption characteristics, which can lead to a notable increase in the positive radiative forcing of BC.

The thermal stability of permafrost, a foundation for engineering infrastructure in cold regions, is increasingly threatened by the dual stressors of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. This study investigates the dynamics of the crushed rock revetted embankment at the Kunlun Mountain Section of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, systematically investigating the coupled impacts of climate warming and engineering activities on permafrost thermal stability using borehole temperature monitoring data (2008-2024) and climatic parameter analysis. Results show that under climate-driven effects, the study area experienced an air temperature increase of 0.2 degrees C per decade over the 2015-2024. Concurrently, the mean annual air thawing degree-days (TDD) rose by 13.8 degrees C center dot d/a, leading to active-layer thickening at a rate of 3.8 cm center dot a- 1at natural ground sites. From 2008 to 2024, the active layer had thickened by 0.7-0.8 m. At the embankment toe (BH 5), the active-layer thickening rate (3.3 cm center dot a- 1) was 25 % lower than that at the natural ground borehole (3.8 cm center dot a- 1); correspondingly, the underlying permafrost temperature increase rate at the toe (0.3 degrees C per decade) was lower than that at the natural borehole (0.5-0.6 degrees C per decade). Permafrost warming rates decreased with depth. Shallow layers (above -2 m) were significantly influenced by climate, with warming rates of 0.3-0.6 degrees C per decade. In contrast, deep layers (below -10 m) showed warming rates converging with the background atmospheric temperature trend (0.2 degrees C per decade). Thermal regime disturbance was most pronounced at horizontal distances of 3.0-5.0 m from the embankment. Nevertheless, the crushed-rock revetment maintained a permafrost table 0.6 m shallower than that of natural ground, confirming its thermal diode effect (facilitating convective cooling in winter), which partially offset climate warming impacts. This study provides critical empirical data and validates the cooling mechanism of crushed-rock revetment, which is essential for predicting the long-term thermal stability and informing adaptive maintenance strategies for railway infrastructure in warming permafrost regions.

Aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) strongly influence regional climate and hydrological cycles. Here we investigate the size-resolved microphysical and optical properties of aerosols in an urban area of the northern TP using a tandem system of a differential mobility analyzer, a condensation particle counter, and a single particle soot photometer. Under the 2021 summer conditions, the average particle number size distribution follows a lognormal pattern, peaking at similar to 70 nm. Refractory black carbon (rBC) aerosols constitute 17.7% of the total particle population in the 100-750 nm mobility diameter (D-mob) range, with their proportion rising to over 50% for D-mob > 500 nm. Most rBC particles are externally mixed, while only 12.2% are thickly coated with non-refractory materials. Externally mixed rBC particles show strong non-sphericity, with a dynamic shape factor increasing from 1.8 at 115 nm to 2.8 at 750 nm, consistent with aggregate structures. In contrast, thickly coated rBC particles are nearly spherical, with coating thickness increasing with size. The total rBC mass estimated from size-resolved measurements closely matches bulk rBC mass directly measured. rBC-free particles exhibit slight non-sphericity, with shape factor positively correlated with refractive index, likely due to dust contributions. Bulk scattering coefficients derived from size-resolved data match those estimated under the well-mixed spherical assumption. However, the later scheme-lacking observational constraints on morphology and mixing state-overestimates absorption by over a factor of three, thereby underestimating the single-scattering albedo. These results provide key constraints for improving aerosol radiative forcing estimates and advancing understanding of aerosol-climate interactions over the TP.

This study assesses the stability of the Bei'an-Hei'he Highway (BHH), located near the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost in the Xiao Xing'anling Mountains, Northeast China, where permafrost degradation is intensifying under combined climatic and anthropogenic influences. Freeze-thaw-induced ground deformation and related periglacial hazards remain poorly quantified, limiting regional infrastructure resilience. We developed an integrated framework that fuses multi-source InSAR (ALOS, Sentinel-1, ALOS-2), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and theoretical modeling to characterize cumulative deformation, evaluate present stability, and project future dynamics. Results reveal long-term deformation rates from -35 to +40 mm/yr within a 1-km buffer on each side of the BHH, with seasonal amplitudes up to 11 mm. Sentinel-1, with its 12-day revisit cycle, demonstrated superior capability for monitoring the Xing'an permafrost. Deformation patterns were primarily controlled by air temperature, while precipitation and the topographic wetness index enhanced spatial heterogeneity through thermo-hydrological coupling. Wavelet analysis identified a 334-day deformation cycle, lagging climate forcing by similar to 107 days due to the insulating effects of peat. Early-warning analysis classified 4.99 % of the highway length as high-risk (subsidence 10.91 mm/yr). The InSAR-based landslide prediction model achieved high accuracy (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, or AUC = 0.9486), validated through field surveys of subsidence, cracking, and slow-moving failures. The proposed 'past-present-future' framework demonstrates the potential of multi-sensor integration for permafrost monitoring and provides a transferable approach for assessing infrastructure stability in cold regions.

The Himalayan glacier valleys are encountering escalating environmental challenges. One of the contributing factors is thought to be the rising amounts of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols, particularly brown carbon (BrC) and black carbon (BC), that are reaching glacier valleys. The present study examines the optical and radiative characteristics of BC at Bhojbasa, near Gaumukh (similar to 3800amsl). Real-time in-situ BC data, optical characteristics, radiative forcing, heating rate, several meteorological parameters, and BC transport pathways to this high-altitude site are investigated. The daily mean concentration of equivalent black carbon (eBC) was 0.28 +/- 0.21 mu g/m(3) over the research period, and the eBC from fossil fuel (BCFF) is dominant with 78 % with a daily mean of 0.22 +/- 0.19 mu g/m(3)(,) and eBC from biomass burning (BCBB) is 22 % with a daily mean of 0.06 +/- 0.08 mu g/m(3). Meteorological data, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) imaging, and backward air-mass trajectory analysis demonstrate the presence of BC particles and their plausible transit pathways from multiple source locations to the pristine Gangotri Glacier Valley. The estimated daily mean BC radiative forcing values are +6.71 +/- 1.80 W/m(2) in the atmosphere, +1.87 +/- 1.16 W/m(2) at the top of the atmosphere, and -4.84 +/- 1.01 W/m(2) at the surface with a corresponding atmospheric heating rate of 0.19 +/- 0.05 K/day. These findings highlight the critical role of ground-based measurements in monitoring the fluctuations of BC over such varied Himalayan terrain, as they offer important information on the localized trends and effects. Long-term measurements of glacier valleys are essential for a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of BC particles on Himalayan ecology and climate.

Here, we present the result of different models for active layer thickness (ALT) in an area of the Italian Central Alps where a few information about the ALT is present. Looking at a particular warm year (2018), we improved PERMACLIM, a model used to calculate the Ground Surface Temperature (GST) and applied two different versions of Stefan's equation to model the ALT. PERMACLIM was updated refining the temporal basis (daily respect the monthly means) of the air temperature and the snow cover. PERMACLIM was updated also to minimize the bias of the snow cover in summer months using the PlanetScope images. Moreover, the contribution of the solar radiation was added to the air temperature to improve the summer GST. The modelled GST showed a good calibration and, among the two versions of Stefan's equation, the first (ALT1) indicates a maximum active layer thickness of 7.5 m and showed a better accuracy with R2 of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.32 m. The model underlined also the importance of better definition of the thermal conductivity of the ground that can strongly influence the ALT.