Soil freeze-thaw state influences multiple terrestrial ecosystem processes, such as soil hydrology and carbon cycling. However, knowledge of historical long-term changes in the timing, duration, and temperature of freeze-thaw processes remains insufficient, and studies exploring the combined or individual contributions of climatic factors-such as air temperature, precipitation, snow depth, and wind speed-are rare, particularly in current thermokarst landscapes induced by abrupt permafrost thawing. Based on ERA5-Land reanalysis, MODIS observations, and integrated thermokarst landform maps, we found that: 1) Hourly soil temperature from the reanalysis effectively captured the temporal variations of in-situ observations, with Pearson' r of 0.66-0.91. 2) Despite an insignificant decrease in daily freeze-thaw cycles in 1981-2022, other indicators in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) changed significantly, including delayed freezing onset (0.113 d yr- 1), advanced thawing onset (-0.22 d yr- 1), reduced frozen days (-0.365 d yr- 1), increased frozen temperature (0.014 degrees C yr- 1), and decreased daily freeze-thaw temperature range (-0.015 degrees C yr- 1). 3) Total contributions indicated air temperature was the dominant climatic driver of these changes, while indicators characterizing daily freeze-thaw cycles were influenced mainly by the combined effects of increased precipitation and air temperature, with remarkable spatial heterogeneity. 4) When regionally averaged, completely thawed days increased faster in the thermokarstaffected areas than in their primarily distributed grasslands-alpine steppe (47.69%) and alpine meadow (22.64%)-likely because of their stronger warming effect of precipitation. Locally, paired comparison within 3 x 3 pixel windows from MODIS data revealed consistent results, which were pronounced when the thermokarst-affected area exceeded about 38% per 1 km2. Conclusively, the warming and wetting climate has significantly altered soil freeze-thaw processes on the QTP, with the frozen soil environment in thermokarstaffected areas, dominated by thermokarst lakes, undergoing more rapid degradation. These insights are crucial for predicting freeze-thaw dynamics and assessing their ecological impacts on alpine grasslands.
The Atacama Plateau in the Central Andes (28-22 degrees S) is characterised by a dry and cold periglacial tundra due to the high altitude, low precipitation, and high evaporation. Endogenous freshwater sources - e.g.: seasonal streams and lakes, subsurface reservoirs, surface snow/ice patches - are available, though they are highly sensitive to climatic changes. The near surface hydrological network is highly modified by the distribution and seasonal evolution of perennial frozen ground, i.e. permafrost, which is also expected to change in the future. The interplay between permafrost and hydrology, especially in relation to future climate change, is poorly explored. To address this issue, we carry out long-term ground temperature measurement and modelling, snow coverage survey, tritium- and stable isotope analysis of surface waters on the Ojos del Salado Massif, which is representative of high altitude mountains on the Atacama Plateau. According to our results, a highly transient surface hydrological network - lakes, springs and streams - forms during each summer where permafrost is widespread and ground thawing (i.e. active layer) is present (similar to 4900-6500 m a.s.l.). In this system, the water is of meteoric origin and relatively young (<10 years). The development of the network is strongly influenced by the active layer, which plays a crucial role in storing, seeping, and discharging groundwater. However, future permafrost degradation is expected to reduce the seasonal presence of shallow water, and hence, modify groundwater recharge patterns.
Alpine wet meadow (AWM), an important wetland type on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), is sensitive to climate change, which alters the soil hydrothermal regime and impacts ecological and hydrological functions in permafrost regions. The mechanisms underlying extreme AWM degradation in the QTP and hydrothermal factors controlling permafrost degradation remain unclear. In this study, soil hydrothermal processes, soil heat migration, and the permafrost state were measured in AWM and extremely degraded AWM (EDAWM). The results showed that the EDAWM exhibited delayed onset of both soil thawing and freezing, shortened thawing period, and extended freezing period at the lower boundary of the active layer. The lower ground temperatures resulted in a 0.2 m shallower active layer thickness in the EDAWM compared with the AWM. Moreover, the EDAWM altered soil thermal dynamics by redistributing energy, modifying soil moisture, preserving soil organic matter, and adjusting soil thermal properties. As for energy budget, a substantial amount of heat in the EDAWM was consumed by turbulent heat fluxes, particularly latent heat flux, which reduced the amount of heat transferred to the ground. Additionally, the higher soil organic matter content in EDAWM decreased the annual mean soil thermal conductivity from 1.42 W m- 1 K-1 in AWM to 1.26 W m- 1 K-1 in EDAWM, slowing down heat transfer within the active layer and consequently mitigating permafrost degradation. However, with continued climate warming, the soil organic matter content in EDAWM will inevitably decline due to microbial decomposition in the absence of new organic inputs. As the soil organic matter content diminishes, soil heat transfer processes will likely accelerate, and the permafrost warming rate may surpass that in undistributed AWM. These findings enhance our understanding of how alpine ecosystem succession influences regional hydrological cycles and greenhouse gas emissions.
Ongoing climate warming and increased human activities have led to significant permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Mapping the distribution of active layer thickness (ALT) can provide essential information for understanding this degradation. Over the past decade, InSAR (Interferometric synthetic aperture radar) technology has been utilized to estimate ALT based on remotely-sensed surface deformation information. However, these methods are generally limited by their ability to accurate extract seasonal deformation and model subsurface water content of active layer. In this paper, an ALT inversion method considering both seasonal deformation from InSAR and smoothly multilayer soil moisture from ERA5 is proposed. Firstly, we introduce a ground seasonal deformation extraction model combining RobustSTL and InSAR, and the deformation extraction accuracy by considering the deformation characteristics of permafrost are evaluated, proving the effectiveness of RobustSTL in extracting seasonal deformation of permafrost. Then, using ERA5 soil moisture products, a smoothed multilayer soil moisture model for ALT inversion is established. Finally, integrating the seasonal deformation and multilayer soil moisture, the ALT can be estimated. The proposed model is applied to the Yellow River source region (YRSR) with Sentinel-1A images acquired from 2017 to 2021, and the ALT retrieval accuracy is validated with measured data. Experimental results show that the vertical deformation rate of the study area generally ranges from -30 mm/year to 20 mm/year, with seasonal deformation amplitude ranging from 2 mm to 30 mm. The RobustSTL method has the highest accuracy in extracting seasonal deformation of permafrost, with an RMSE (root mean square error) of 0.69 mm, and is capable of capturing the freeze-thaw characteristics of the active layer. The estimated ALT of the YRSR ranges from 49 cm to 450 cm, with an average value of 145 cm. Compared to the measured data, the proposed method has an average error of 37.5 cm, which represents a 21 % improvement in accuracy over existing methods.
Permafrost is undergoing rapid changes due to climate warming, potentially exposing a vast reservoir of carbon to be released to the atmosphere, causing a positive feedback cycle. Despite the importance of this feedback, its specifics remain poorly constrained, because representing permafrost dynamics still poses a significant challenge for Earth System Models (ESMs). This review assesses the current state of permafrost representation in land surface models (LSMs) used in ESMs and offline permafrost models, highlighting both the progress made and the remaining gaps.We identify several key physical processes crucial for permafrost dynamics, including soil thermal regimes, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil hydrology, which are underrepresented in many models. While some LSMs have advanced significantly in incorporating these processes, others lack fundamental elements such as latent heat of freeze-thaw, deep soil columns, and Arctic vegetation dynamics. Offline permafrost models provide valuable insights, offering detailed process testing and aiding the prioritization of improvements in coupled LSMs.Our analysis reveals that while significant progress has been made in incorporating permafrost-related processes into coupled LSMs, many small-scale processes crucial for permafrost dynamics remain underrepresented. This is particularly important for capturing the complex interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes required to model permafrost carbon dynamics. We recommend leveraging advancements from offline permafrost models and progressively integrating them into LSMs, while recognizing the computational and technical challenges that may arise in coupled simulations. We highlight the importance of enhancing the representation of physical processes, including through improvements in model resolution and complexity, as this is a fundamental precursor to accurately incorporate biogeochemical processes and capture the permafrost carbon feedback.
Global warming due to climate change has substantial impact on high-altitude permafrost affected soils. This raises a serious concern that the microbial degradation of sequestered carbon can result in alteration of the biogeochemical cycles. Therefore, the characterization of permafrost affected soil microbiomes, especially of unexplored high-altitude, low oxygen arid region, is important for predicting their response to climate change. This study presents the first report of the bacterial diversity of permafrost-affected soils in the Changthang region of Ladakh. The relationship between soil pH, organic carbon, electrical conductivity, and available micronutrients with the microbial diversity was investigated. Amplicon sequencing of permafrost affected soil samples from Jukti and Tsokar showed that Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria were the dominant phyla in all samples. The genera Brevitalea, Chthoniobacter, Sphingomonas, Hydrogenispora, Clostridium, Gaiella, Gemmatimonas were relatively abundant in the Jukti samples whereas the genera Thiocapsa, Actinotalea, Syntrophotalea, Antracticibcterium, Luteolibacter, Nitrospirillum dominated the Tsokar sample. Correlation analyses highlighted the influence of soil geochemical parameters on the bacterial community structure. PCoA analyses showed that the bacterial beta diversity varied significantly between the sampling locations (PERMANOVA test (F-value: 2.3316; R2 = 0.466, p = 0.001) and similar results were also obtained while comparing genus abundance data using the ANOSIM test (R = 0.345, p = 0.007).
Soil thermal conductivity (STC) plays a crucial role in regulating the energy distribution of both the surface and underground soil layers. It is widely applied in various fields, including engineering design, geothermal resource development and climate change research. A rapid and accurate estimation of STC remains a key focus in the study of soil thermodynamic parameters. However, the methods for estimating STC and their distinct characteristics have yet to be systematically reviewed. In this study, we used bibliometrics to comprehensively and systematically review the literature on STC, focusing on knowledge graph characteristics to analyze the development trend of calculation schemes. The main conclusions drawn from the study are as follows: (1) In recent years, most studies have been focused on soil thermal characteristics and their main contributing factors, the soil hydrothermal process in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, geothermal equipment and numerical simulations, and the exploration of geothermal resources. (2) A systematic review of various schemes indicates that no single scheme is universally applicable to all soil types. Moreover, a single parameterization scheme fails to meet the practical requirements of land surface process models. We evaluated the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional heat conduction schemes, parameterization schemes, and machine learning-based schemes and the findings suggest that a comprehensive scheme that integrates these three different schemes for STC simulations should be urgently developed.
Permafrost degradation is one of the most significant consequences of climate change in the Arctic. During summers, permafrost degradation is evident with cryospheric hazards like retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) and active layer detachment slides (ALDs). In parallel, the Arctic has become a popular tourist destination for nature-based activities, with summer being the peak touristic season. In this context, cryospheric hazards pose potential risks for tourists' presence in Arctic national parks and wilderness in general, like in the Yukon. This essay provides the basis for investigating further periglacial, geomorphological and tourism intersections, highlighting the critical need for future interdisciplinary research on thawing permafrost impacts. More so, this requires moving beyond the predominant focus on permafrost impacts on infrastructure and to also consider the direct threats posed to human physical presence in Arctic tourist destinations affected by permafrost degradation. Such interdisciplinary approach is critical not only to mitigate risks, but also to provide policy- and decision-makers with valuable insights for implementing measures and guidelines.
Ongoing and widespread permafrost degradation potentially affects terrestrial ecosystems, whereas the changes in its effects on vegetation under climate change remain unclear. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of progressive active layer thickness (ALT) increases to vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) in the northern permafrost region during the 21st century. Our results revealed that ALT changes accounted for 40% of the GPP increase in the permafrost region during 2000-2021, with amplified effects observed in late growing season (September-October) (43.2%-45.4%) and was especially notable in tundra ecosystems (51%-52.6%). However, projections indicated that this contribution could decrease considerably in the coming decades. Model simulations suggest that once ALT increments (relative to the 2001-2021 baseline) reach approximately 90 cm between 2035 and 2045, the promoting effect of ALT increase on vegetation growth may disappear. These findings provide crucial insights for accurately modelling and predicting ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudinal regions.
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) covers the largest regions under low- and mid-latitude permafrost. The evolution of permafrost has significantly affected the hydrology, biogeochemistry, and infrastructure of Asia. However, model reconstructions of long-term permafrost evolution with high accuracy and reliability are insufficient. Here, spatial changes in mean annual ground temperature at the depth where the annual amplitude is zero (MAGT) on the TP since 1981 were modeled and validated based on temperature records from 155 boreholes, and future changes were predicted under scenarios from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results indicated that the MAGT on the TP was approximately 1.5 degrees C (2010 - 2018), and the corresponding permafrost extent on the TP is estimated to be approximately 1.03 x 106 km2, which is projected to decrease to 0.77 x 106, 0.50 x 106, 0.30 x 106, and 0.17 x 106 km2 under the scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, by 2100. As predicted in the SSP585 scenario, permafrost is predicted to largely disappear from many basins of major Asian rivers, such as the Yarlung Zangpo-Brahmaputra, NuSalween, and Lancang-Mekong Rivers, between 2041 and 2060, followed by the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers between 2061 and 2080. Moreover, the original stable permafrost in the West Kunlun Mountains will change to transitional and unstable conditions. Our study offers comprehensive datasets of year-to-year ground temperatures and permafrost extent maps for the TP, which can serve as a fundamental resource for further investigations on the hydrogeology, engineering geology, ecology, and geochemistry of the TP.