The Arctic has been warming much faster than the global average, known as Arctic amplification. The active layer is seasonally frozen in winter and thaws in summer. In the 2017 Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) airborne campaign, airborne L- and P- band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) was used to acquire a dataset of active layer thickness (ALT) and vertical soil moisture profile, at 30 m resolution for 51 swaths across the ABoVE domain. Using a thawing degree day (TDD) model, ALT=K root TDD, we estimated ALT along the ABoVE swaths employing the 2-m air temperature from ERA5. The coefficient (K) calibrated has an R2=0.9783. We also obtained an excellent fit between ALT and K root(TDD/theta) where theta is the soil moisture from ERA5 (R2=0.9719). Output based on shared-social economic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5 from seven global climate models (GCMs), statistically downscaled to 25-km resolution, was used to project the impacts of climate warming on ALT. Assuming ALT=K root TDD, the projections of UKESM1-0-LL GCM resulted in the largest projected ALT, up to about 0.7 m in 2080s under SSP5-8.5. Given that the mean observed ALT of the study sites is about 0.482 m, this implies that ALT will increase by 0.074 to 0.217 m (15% and 45%) in 2080s. This will have substantial impacts on Arctic infrastructure. The projected settlement Iset (cm) of 1 to 7 cm will also impact the infrastructure, especially by differential settlement due to the high spatial variability of ALT and soil moisture, given at local scale the actual thawing will partly depend on thaw sensitivity of the material and potential thaw strain, which could vary widely from location to location.

Climate change is transforming the ice-free areas of Antarctica, leading to rapid changes in terrestrial ecosystems. These areas represent <0.5% of the continent and coincide with the most anthropogenically pressured sites, where the human footprint is a source of contamination. Simultaneously, these are the locations where permafrost can be found, not being clear what might be the consequences following its degradation regarding trace element remobilisation. This raises the need for a better understanding of the natural geochemical values of Antarctic soils as well as the extent of human impact in the surroundings of scientific research stations. Permafrost thaw in the Western Antarctic Peninsula region and in the McMurdo Dry Valleys is the most likely to contribute to the remobilisation of toxic trace elements, whether as the result of anthropogenic contamination or due to the degradation of massive buried ice and ice-cemented permafrost. Site-specific locations across Antarctica, with abandoned infrastructure, also deserve attention by continuing to be a source of trace elements that later can be released, posing a threat to the environment. This comprehensive summary of trace element concentrations across the continent's soils enables the geographical systematisation of published results for a better comparison of the literature data. This review also includes the used analytical techniques and methods for trace element dissolution, important factors when reporting low concentrations. A new perspective in environmental monitoring is needed to investigate if trace element remobilisation upon permafrost thaw might be a tangible consequence of climate change.

Subsea pipelines in Arctic environments face the risk of damage from ice gouging, where drifting ice keels scour the seabed. To ensure pipeline integrity, burial using methods like ploughs, mechanical trenchers, jetting, or hydraulic dredging is the conventional protection method. Each method has capabilities and limitations, resulting in different trench profiles and backfill characteristics. This study investigates the influence of these trenching methods and their associated trench geometries on pipeline response and seabed failure mechanisms during ice gouging events. Using advanced large deformation finite element (LDFE) analyses with a Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) algorithm, the complex soil behavior, including strain-rate dependency and strainsoftening effects, is modeled. The simulations explicitly incorporate the pipeline, enabling a detailed analysis of its behavior under ice gouging loads. The simulations analyze subgouge soil displacement, pipeline displacement, strains, and ovalization. The findings reveal a direct correlation between increasing trench wall angle and width and the intensification of the backfill removal mechanism. Trench geometry significantly influences the pipeline's horizontal and vertical displacement, while axial displacement and ovalization are less affected. This study emphasizes the crucial role of trenching technique selection and trench shape design in mitigating the risks of ice gouging, highlighting the value of numerical modeling in optimizing pipeline protection strategies in these challenging environments.

With polar amplification warming the northern high latitudes at an unprecedented rate, understanding the future dynamics of vegetation and the associated carbon-nitrogen cycle is increasingly critical. This study uses the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS 4.1 to simulate vegetation changes for a future climate scenario, generated by the EC-Earth3.3.1 Earth System model, with the forcing of a 560 ppm CO2 level. Using climate output from an earth system model without coupled dynamic vegetation, to run a higher resolution dynamic vegetation standalone model, allows for a more in depth exploration of vegetation changes. Plus, with this approach, the drivers of high latitude vegetation changes are isolated, but there is still a complete understanding of the climate system and the feedback mechanisms that contributed to it. Our simulations reveal an uneven greening response. The already vegetated Southern Scandinavia and western Russia undergo a shift in species composition as boreal species decline and temperate species expand. This is accompanied by a shift to a carbon sink, despite higher litterfall, root turnover and soil respiration rates, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing decomposition. The previously barren or marginal landscapes of Siberia and interior Alaska/Western Canada, undergo significant vegetation expansion, transitioning towards more stable, forested systems with enhanced carbon uptake. Yet, in the previously sparsely vegetated northern Scandinavia, under elevated CO2 temperate species quickly establish, bypassing the expected boreal progression due to surpassed climate thresholds. Here, despite rising productivity, there is a shift to a carbon source. The deeply frozen soils in central Siberia resist colonisation, underscoring the role of continuous permafrost in buffering ecological change. Together, these results highlight that CO2 induced greening does not always equate to enhanced carbon sequestration. The interplay of warming, nutrient constraints, permafrost dynamics and disturbance regimes creates divergent ecosystem trajectories across the northern high latitudes. These findings illustrate a strong need for regional differentiation in climate projections and carbon budget assessments, as the Arctic's role as a carbon sink may be more heterogeneous and vulnerable than previously assumed.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Arctic are prime examples of permafrost distribution in high-altitude and high-latitude regions. A nuanced understanding of soil thermal conductivity (STC) and the various influencing factors is essential for improving the accuracy of permafrost simulation models in these areas. Nevertheless, no comparative analysis of STC between these two regions has been conducted. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the characteristics and influencing factors of STC at varying depths within the active layer (5 to 60 cm) during freezing and thawing periods in the QTP and the Arctic, using the regional-scale STC data products simulated through the XGBoost method. The findings indicate the following: (1) the mean STC of permafrost in the QTP is higher than that in the Arctic permafrost region. The STC in the QTP demonstrates a declining trend over time, while the Arctic permafrost maintains relative stability. The mean STC values in the QTP permafrost region during the thawing period are significantly higher than those during the freezing period. (2) STC of the QTP exhibits a fluctuating pattern at different depths, in contrast, the average STC value in the Arctic increases steadily with depth, with an increase rate of approximately 0.005 Wm-1 K-1/cm. (3) The analysis of influencing factors revealed that although moisture content, bulk density, and porosity are the primary drivers of regional variations in STC between the QTP and the Arctic permafrost, moisture elements in the QTP region have a greater influence on STC and the effect is stronger with increasing depth and during the freeze-thaw cycles. Conversely, soil saturation, bulk density, and porosity in the Arctic have significant impacts. This study constitutes the first systematic comparative analysis of STC characteristics.

Arctic warming is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and tree-line expansion and densification. However, predicting the carbon trajectories of the changing Arctic is challenging due to interacting feedbacks between vegetation composition and structure, and surface characteristics. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the current-date to 2100 projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and CO2 fluxes to different shrub expansion rates under future emission scenarios (intermediate-RCP4.5, and high-RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused configuration of E3SM Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), an upland tundra site in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing shrub densification and expansion. We find that shrub expansion did not significantly alter the modeled surface energy and water budgets. However, the carbon balance was sensitive to shrub expansion, which drove higher rates of carbon sequestration as a consequence of higher shrubification rates. Thus, at low shrub expansion rates, the site would become a carbon source, especially under RCP8.5, due to higher temperatures, which deepen the active layer and enhance soil respiration. At higher shrub expansion rates, TVC would become a net CO2 sink under both Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios due to higher shrub productivity outweighing temperature-driven respiration increase. Our simulations highlight the effect of shrub expansion on Arctic ecosystem carbon fluxes and stocks. We predict that at TVC, shrubification rate would interact with climate change intensity to determine whether the site would become a carbon sink or source under projected future climate.

Purpose of ReviewWe review how 'abrupt thaw' has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science.Recent FindingsWe address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire.SummaryPermafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term 'abrupt thaw' has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

This manuscript presents a comprehensive presentation of ground temperature data collected at 16 nodes of the 121 of the Crater Lake Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site on Deception Island, Antarctica, from 2008 to early 2022. Each one of the 16 shallow boreholes has been equipped with miniature temperature loggers, providing valuable insights into the thermal regime of the ground at a depth of 50 cm, which corresponds to the mean depth of the top of the permafrost table as observed by annual mechanical probing in the CALM site. Despite a 9-month long gap in data collection during 2017 due to persistent snow cover, the time series remains largely intact, with annual measurements taken every 3 h. The manuscript details the methodologies employed for data collection, including the use of iButton loggers, and outlines the challenges faced in retrieving and processing the data in the harsh Antarctic environment. The cleaned dataset, which consolidates data from various nodes while removing erroneous records, is made freely accessible to the scientific community without any additional processing of the data such as offset corrections or gaps interpolation. This resource is expected to facilitate further research into the thermal dynamics of the active layer and permafrost and its implications for climate change since both are influenced by external factors such as snow cover, air temperature and others. Overall, the presented dataset contributes to the limited body of knowledge regarding Antarctic permafrost and provides a foundation for future investigations into the effects of climate change on frozen ground dynamics. The dataset serves as a vital tool for researchers aiming to model ground thermal behaviour and assess the impacts of environmental changes in polar regions.

With Arctic amplification, hydrological conditions in Arctic permafrost regions are expected to change substantially, which can have a strong impact on carbon budgets. To date, detailed mechanisms remain highly uncertain due to the lack of continuous observational data. Considering the large carbon storage in these regions, understanding these processes becomes crucial for estimating the future trajectory of global climate change. This study presents findings from 8 years of continuous eddy-covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes over a wet tussock tundra ecosystem near Chersky in Northeast Siberia, comparing data between a site affected by a long-term drainage disturbance and an undisturbed control site. We observed a significant increasing trend in roughness lengths at both sites, indicating denser and/or taller vegetation; however, the increase at the drained site was more pronounced, highlighting the dominant impact of drainage on vegetation structure. These trends in aboveground biomass contributed to differences in gross primary production (GPP) between the two sites increasing over the years, continuously reducing the negative effect of the drainage disturbance on the sink strength for CO2. In addition, carbon turnover rates at the drained site were enhanced, with ecosystem respiration and GPP consistently higher compared to the control site. Because of the artificially lower water table depth (WTD), CH(4 )emissions at the drained site were almost halved. Furthermore, drainage altered the ecosystem's response to environmental controls. Compared to the control site, the drained site became slightly more sensitive to the global radiation (R-g), resulting in higher CO(2 )uptake under the same levels of R-g. Meanwhile, CH(4 )emissions at the drained site showed a higher correlation with deep soil temperatures. Overall, our findings from this WTD manipulation experiment show that changing hydrological conditions will significantly impact the Arctic ecosystem characteristics, carbon budgets, and ecosystem's response to environmental changes.

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0 degrees C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation-factors associated with energy balance-were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.