The areas covered by permafrost in the polar regions are vulnerable to rapid changes in the current climate. The well-studied near-surface active layer and permafrost zone are in contrast to the unknown exact shape of the bottom permafrost boundary. Therefore, the entire shape of permafrost between the upper and lower boundaries is not identified with sufficient accuracy. Since most of the factors affecting deep cryotic structures are subsurface in nature, their evolution in deeper layers is also relatively unclear. Here, we propose a hypothesis based on the results of geophysical studies regarding the shape of the permafrost in the coastal area of Svalbard, Southern Spitsbergen. In the article, we emphasize the importance of recognizing not only the uppermost active layer but also the bottom boundary of permafrost along with its transition zone, due to the underestimated potential role of its continuity in observing climate change. The lower permafrost boundary is estimated to range from 70 m below the surface in areas close to the shore to 180 m inland, while a continuous layer of an entirely frozen matrix can be identified with a thickness between 40 m and 100 m. We also hypothesized the presence of the possible subsea permafrost in the Hornsund. The influence of seawater intrusions, isostatic uplift of deglaciated areas, and surface-related processes that affect permafrost evolution may lead to extensive changes in the hy-drology and geology of the polar regions in the future. For all these reasons, monitoring, geophysical imaging and understanding the characteristics and evolution of deep permafrost structures requires global attention and scientific efforts.

The impacts of ongoing climate warming on cold-regions hydrogeology and groundwater resources have created a need to develop groundwater models adapted to these environments. Although permafrost is considered relatively impermeable to groundwater flow, permafrost thaw may result in potential increases in surface water infiltration, groundwater recharge, and hydrogeologic connectivity that can impact northern water resources. To account for these feedbacks, groundwater models that include the dynamic effects of freezing and thawing on ground properties and thermal regimes have been recently developed. However, these models are more complex than traditional hydrogeology numerical models due to the inclusion of nonlinear freeze-thaw processes and complex thermal boundary conditions. As such, their use to date has been limited to a small community of modeling experts. This article aims to provide guidelines and tips on cold-regions groundwater modeling for those with previous modeling experience. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

Subsurface solute transport under surface warming and degrading permafrost conditions is studied using a physically based model of coupled cryotic and hydrogeological flow processes combined with a particle tracking method. Changes in the subsurface water and inert solute pathways and travel times are analyzed for different modeled geological configurations. For all simulated cases, the minimum and mean travel times increase nonlinearly with warming irrespective of geological configuration and heterogeneity structure. The timing of the start of increase in travel time depends on heterogeneity structure, combined with the rate of permafrost degradation that also depends on material thermal and hydrogeological properties. The travel time changes depend on combined warming effects of: i) increase in pathway length due to deepening of the active layer, ii) reduced transport velocities due to a shift from horizontal saturated groundwater flow near the surface to vertical water percolation deeper into the subsurface, and iii) pathway length increase and temporary immobilization caused by cryosuction-induced seasonal freeze cycles.

Climate change is expected to increase regional and global air temperatures and significantly alter precipitation regimes. These projected changes in meteorological conditions will likely influence subsurface thermal regimes. Increases in groundwater and soil temperatures could impact groundwater quality, harm groundwater-sourced ecosystems, and contribute to the geotechnical failure of critical infrastructure. Furthermore, permafrost thaw induced by rising subsurface temperatures will likely alter surface and subsurface hydrology in high altitude and/or latitude regions and exacerbate the rate of anthropogenic climate change by releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere. This contribution discusses the theory and development of subsurface heat transport equations for cold and temperate regions. Analytical solutions to transient forms of the conduction equation and the conduction-advection equation with and without freezing are detailed. In addition, recently developed groundwater flow and heat transport models that can accommodate freezing and thawing processes are briefly summarized. These models can be applied to simulate climate change-induced permafrost degradation and dormant aquifer activation in cold regions. Several previous reviews have focused on the impact of climate change on subsurface hydraulic regimes and groundwater resources, but this is the first synthesis of studies considering the influence of future climate change on subsurface thermal regimes in cold and temperate regions. The current gaps in this body of knowledge are highlighted, and recommendations are made for improving future studies by linking atmospheric global climate models to subsurface heat transport models that consider heat advection via groundwater flow. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Antarctic climate system varies on timescales from orbital, through millennial to sub-annual, and is closely coupled to other parts of the global climate system. We review these variations from the perspective of the geological and glaciological records and the recent historical period from which we have instrumental data (similar to the last 50 years). We consider their consequences for the biosphere, and show how the latest numerical models project changes into the future, taking into account human actions in the form of the release of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere. In doing so, we provide an essential Southern Hemisphere companion to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Infrastructure in cold regions is vulnerable to the potential degradation of permafrost under a warming climate. Meanwhile, the accumulation of meteorological data and the refinement of AOGCMs in recent years have improved the confidence in future global air temperature predictions. A reliable scheme is now desired that converts these climate predictions into future geocryological predictions relevant to geotechnical engineering and risk assessment. This paper describes a multidisciplinary approach that provides a first estimate of transient ground responses to climate change on a regional basis. The scheme integrates locally adjusted AOGCM climate predictions, regional geological assessments, non-linear thermal finite element analysis and digital elevation models derived from remote sensing data. The practical application of the approach is demonstrated through predictions made of the geocryological changes expected between 1940 and 2059 in a Siberian region. The paper presents results from one sampled area where discontinuous permafrost is present beneath rolling hills terrain. It is shown that elevation, vegetation and local geological variations all affect the development of permafrost, with important implications for infrastructure design and operation. A range of useful geocryological maps can be output from the procedure, including temperature at the active layer base, permafrost table depth, and ground temperature at any desired depth. It is shown that the permafrost model's predictions for present-day conditions agree well with existing geocryological maps. An illustrative example of how simple geohazard maps may be prepared from the output is also provided.