Permafrost is one of the crucial components of the cryosphere, covering about 25% of the global continental area. The active layer thickness (ALT), as the main site for heat and water exchange between permafrost and the external atmosphere, its changes significantly impact the carbon cycle, hydrological processes, ecosystems, and the safety of engineering structures in cold regions. This study constructs a Stefan CatBoost-ET (SCE) model through machine learning and Blending integration, leveraging multi-source remote sensing data, the Stefan equation, and measured ALT data to focus on the ALT in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Additionally, the SCE model was verified via ten-fold cross-validation (MAE: 20.713 cm, RMSE: 32.680 cm, R2: 0.873, and MAPE: 0.104), and its inversion of QTP's ALT data from 1958 to 2022 revealed 1998 as a key turning point with a slow growth rate of 0.25 cm/a before 1998 and a significantly increased rate of 1.26 cm/a afterward. Finally, based on multiple model input factor analysis methods (SHAP, Pearson correlation, and Random Forest Importance), the study analyzed the ranking of key factors influencing ALT changes. Meanwhile, the importance of Stefan equation results in SCE model is verified. The research results of this paper have positive implications for eco-hydrology in the QTP region, and also provide valuable references for simulating the ALT of permafrost.

Alpine wet meadow (AWM), an important wetland type on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), is sensitive to climate change, which alters the soil hydrothermal regime and impacts ecological and hydrological functions in permafrost regions. The mechanisms underlying extreme AWM degradation in the QTP and hydrothermal factors controlling permafrost degradation remain unclear. In this study, soil hydrothermal processes, soil heat migration, and the permafrost state were measured in AWM and extremely degraded AWM (EDAWM). The results showed that the EDAWM exhibited delayed onset of both soil thawing and freezing, shortened thawing period, and extended freezing period at the lower boundary of the active layer. The lower ground temperatures resulted in a 0.2 m shallower active layer thickness in the EDAWM compared with the AWM. Moreover, the EDAWM altered soil thermal dynamics by redistributing energy, modifying soil moisture, preserving soil organic matter, and adjusting soil thermal properties. As for energy budget, a substantial amount of heat in the EDAWM was consumed by turbulent heat fluxes, particularly latent heat flux, which reduced the amount of heat transferred to the ground. Additionally, the higher soil organic matter content in EDAWM decreased the annual mean soil thermal conductivity from 1.42 W m- 1 K-1 in AWM to 1.26 W m- 1 K-1 in EDAWM, slowing down heat transfer within the active layer and consequently mitigating permafrost degradation. However, with continued climate warming, the soil organic matter content in EDAWM will inevitably decline due to microbial decomposition in the absence of new organic inputs. As the soil organic matter content diminishes, soil heat transfer processes will likely accelerate, and the permafrost warming rate may surpass that in undistributed AWM. These findings enhance our understanding of how alpine ecosystem succession influences regional hydrological cycles and greenhouse gas emissions.

Study region: The Qinghai Lake basin, including China's largest saltwater lake, is located on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Study focus: This study focuses on the hydrological changes between the past (1971-2010) and future period (2021-2060) employing the distributed hydrological model in the Qinghai Lake basin. Lake evaporation, lake precipitation, and water level changes were estimated using the simulations driven by corrected GCM data. The impacts of various factors on the lake water levels were meticulously quantified. New hydrological insights: Relative to the historical period, air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.72 degrees C under SSP2-4.5 and by 2.21 degrees C under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and the future annual precipitation will rise by 34.7 mm in SSP2-4.5 and 44.1 mm in SSP5-8.5 in the next four decades. The ground temperature is projected to show an evident rise in the future period, which thickens the active layer and reduces the frozen depth. The runoff into the lake is a pivotal determinant of future water level changes, especially the runoff from the permafrost degradation region and permafrost region dominates the future water level changes. There will be a continuous rapid increase of water level under SSP5-8.5, while the water level rising will slow down after 2045 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This study provides an enhanced comprehension of the climate change impact on QTP lakes.

Numerous endorheic lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have shown a dramatic increase in total area since 1996. These expanding lakes are mainly located in the interior regions of the QTP, where permafrost is widely distributed. Despite significant permafrost degradation due to global warming, the impact of permafrost thawing on lake evolution in QTP has been underexplored. This study investigated the permafrost degradation and its correlation with lake area increase by selecting four lake basins (Selin Co, Nam Co, Zhari Namco, and Dangqiong Co) in QTP for analysis. Fluid-heat-ice coupled numerical models were conducted on the aquifer cross-sections in these four lake basins, to simulate permafrost thawing driven by rising surface temperatures, and calculate the subsequent changes in groundwater discharge into the lakes. The contribution of these changes to lake storage, which is proportional to lake area, was investigated. Numerical simulation indicates that from 1982 to 2011, permafrost degradation remained consistent across the four basins. During this period, the active layer thickness first increased, then decreased, and partially transformed into talik, with depths reaching up to 25 m. By 2011, groundwater discharge had significantly risen, exceeding 2.9 times the initial discharge in 1988 across all basins. This increased discharge now constitutes up to 17.67 % of the total lake water inflow (Selin Co). The dynamic lake water budget further suggests that groundwater contributed significantly to lake area expansion, particularly since 2000. These findings highlight the importance of considering permafrost thawing as a crucial factor in understanding the dynamics of lake systems in the QTP in the context of climate change.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has undergone significant warming, wetting, and greening (WWG) over decades, alongside substantial alterations in hydrological regimes. These changes present great challenges for safeguarding water resources and ecosystems downstream. However, the lack of field observation and systematic research has obscured our understanding of how hydrological processes respond to the combined influences of climate-permafrost-vegetation. This study focuses on the source regions of the Yangtze River, one of the highest permafrost-covered basins on the QTP, and employs a process-based hydrological model to quantify the effects of WWG on hydrological processes. We show that the increasing precipitation dominates subsurface runoff changes while rising temperature primarily affects surface runoff changes by reducing the frozen duration (-52 days/century) and thickening the active layer (+2.4 cm/year). Greening vegetation primarily affects transpiration and interception evaporation. Warming, wetting, and greening will cause a transition in runoff dynamics from surface runoff dominance to subsurface runoff dominance in permafrost basins, and reduce the risk of both flooding and water shortage indicated by the decreased maximum low flow duration and maximum high flow duration of 11.0 and 5.0 days/year, respectively. Moreover, cold permafrost regions exhibit a greater propensity for generating runoff, as indicated by a higher annual increase in runoff coefficient (0.005/year) and total runoff (4.81 mm/year), compared to warm permafrost regions (with increase of 0.001/year and 1.20 mm/year, respectively). These findings enhance the understanding of hydrological changes due to WWG and provide insights for water resources management in permafrost regions under climate change.

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China faces challenges like thaw slumping, threatening slope stability and infrastructure. Understanding the mechanical properties of the roots of the dominant herbaceous plant species in the alpine meadow layer of the permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is essential for evaluating their role in enhancing soil shear strength and mitigating slope deformation in these fragile environments. In this study, the roots of four dominant herbaceous plant species-Kobresia pygmaea, Kobresia humilis, Carex moorcroftii, and Leontopodium pusillum-that are widely distributed in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were explored to determine their mechanical properties and effects in enhancing soil shear strength. Through indoor single root tensile and root group tensile tests, we determined the root diameter, tensile force, tensile strength, tensile ratio, and strength frequency distributions. We also evaluated their contributions to inhibiting slope deformation and failure during the formation and development of thermal thaw slumps in the alpine meadow. The results showed that the distribution of the root diameter of the dominant plant species is mostly normal, while the tensile strength tends to be logarithmically normally distributed. The relationship between the root diameter and root tensile strength conforms to a power function. The theoretical tensile strength of the root group was calculated using the Wu-Waldron Model (WWM) and the Fiber Bundle Model (FBM) under the assumption that the cumulative single tensile strength of the root bundle is identical to the tensile strength of the root group in the WWM. The FBM considers three fracture modes: FBM-D (the tensile force on each single root is proportional to its diameter relative to the total sum of all the root diameters), FBM-S (the cross-sectional stress in the root bundle is uniform), and FBM-N (each tensile strength test of individual roots experiences an equal load). It was found that the model-calculated tensile strength of the root group was 162.60% higher than the test value. The model-derived tensile force of the root group from the FBM-D, FBM-S, and FBM-N was 73.10%, 28.91%, and 13.47% higher than the test values, respectively. The additional cohesion of the soil provided by the roots was calculated to be 25.90-45.06 kPa using the modified WWM, 67.05-38.15 kPa using the FBM-S, and 57.24-32.74 kPa using the FBM-N. These results not only provide a theoretical basis for further quantitative evaluation of the mechanical effects of the root systems of herbaceous plant species in reinforcing the surface soil but also have practical significance for the effective prevention and control of thermal thaw slumping disasters in the permafrost regions containing native alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau using flexible plant protection measures.

Accurate understanding and modeling of soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions is essential for reliably assessing future permafrost changes and their impacts. However, the inadequate representation of soil water-heat transport processes in current land surface models (LSMs) introduces large uncertainty in simulating permafrost dynamics, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study, we modified the parameterizations of soil thermal conductivity, unfrozen water and soil evaporation resistance in version 5.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) and assessed their effects on soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions on the QTP using in-situ measurements the depths of 10-40 cm. The results showed that soil temperature was more sensitive to the modified soil thermal conductivity and unfrozen water schemes, with average RMSE reduced by approximately 0.60 degrees C compared to the default CLM5.0. Soil moisture was mainly affected the unfrozen water scheme during freezing and by the optimized soil evaporation resistance scheme during thawing, with maximum accuracy improvements of 8% and 25%, respectively. All three schemes significantly improved soil thermal conductivity simulations, reducing RMSE over 80%. Overall, our modifications remarkably reduced simulation errors compared to the default schemes, improving the average accuracy soil temperature, soil moisture and soil thermal conductivity by approximately 16%, 21% and 81% respectively. Additionally, this study emphasized the importance of accurately representing permafrost-related processes in LSMs, as they significantly affected simulation results. Specifically, soil thermodynamics is strongly sensitive to subtle changes in soil moisture transport processes, such as the hysteresis effect unfrozen water content, and parameterizations of snowpack and vegetation. Therefore, future work should focus on enhancing the accurate representations of these processes and optimized parameters in LSMs to improve the simulation accuracy in permafrost regions on the QTP. This study enhanced the understanding of soil hydrothermal processes in LSMs and provided valuable insights for the future model development for permafrost regions under the context of climate change.

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

The long-term deformation rule of the embankment can reflect the impact of environmental factors on the embankment during different periods, and the deformation rule of the embankment is also the ultimate expression of embankment structure change under the interaction of various environmental factors. This study presents two classification methods for such deformation rules, which are based on long-term deformation monitoring data spanning 2006-2020, and obtained from 39 embankment sections along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR). The deformation rules of railway embankments in permafrost regions can be classified into five categories based on the accumulated deformation: slight heave, slight settlement, slow settlement, rapid settlement, and damage type. In addition, the curve trend of the embankment deformation can be used to categorize the deformation rules into five types: linear, step, fluctuating, U-shaped, and heave. The formation mechanism and characteristics of each type are summarized and analyzed. The results indicate that the linear type is the most unstable type, and the embankment experiences continuous and significant settlement deformation. Finally, two prediction models are established for the long-term deformation rules of embankments in permafrost regions. These models are used to establish the relationship between the early deformation rates and long-term deformation rules of the embankment, and can be used to predict whether the deformation rule of an embankment after 10 years of completion is linear. This study aims to provide early decision support for embankment stability evaluation, deformation prediction, reinforcement, and other studies in permafrost regions.

In the context of global warming, landscapes with ice-rich permafrost, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), are highly vulnerable. The expansion of thermokarst lakes erodes the surrounding land, leading to collapses of various scales and posing a threat to nearby infrastructure and the environment. Assessing the susceptibility of thermokarst lakes in remote, data-scarce areas remains a challenging task. In this study, Landsat imagery and human-computer interaction were employed to improve the accuracy of thermokarst lake classification. The study also identified the key factors influencing the occurrence of thermokarst lakes, including the lake density, soil moisture (SM), slope, vegetation, snow cover, ground temperature, precipitation, and permafrost stability (PS). The results indicate that the most susceptible areas cover 19.02% of the QTP's permafrost region, primarily located in southwestern Qinghai, northeastern Tibet, and the Hoh Xil region. This study provides a framework for mapping the spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes and contributes to understanding the impact of climate change on the QTP.