Slope failures resulting from thaw slumps in permafrost regions, have developed widely under the influence of climate change and engineering activities. The shear strength at the interface between the active layer and permafrost (IBALP) at maximum thawing depth is a critical factor to evaluate stability of permafrost slopes. Traditional direct shear, triaxial shear, and large-scale in-situ shear experiments are unsuitable for measuring the shear strength parameter of the IBALP. Based on the characteristics of thaw slumps in permafrost regions, this study proposes a novel test method of self-weight direct shear instrument (SWDSI), and its principle, structure, measurement system and test steps are described in detail. The shear strength of the IBALP under maximum thaw depth conditions is measured using this method. The results show that under the condition that the permafrost layer is thick underground ice and the active layer consists of silty clay with 20% water content, the test results are in good agreement with the results of field large-scale direct shear tests and are in accordance with previous understandings and natural laws. The above analysis indicates that the method of the SWDSI has a reliable theoretical basis and reasonable experimental procedures, and meets the needs of stability assessment of thaw slumps in permafrost regions. The experimental data obtained provide important parameter support for the evaluation of related geological hazards.
Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution and its environmental controls in permafrost regions is essential for achieving carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change. This study examines the spatial pattern of SOC and its drivers in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR), northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), a region highly susceptible to permafrost degradation. Field investigations at topsoils of 86 sites over three summers (2021-2023) provided data on SOC, vegetation structure, and soil properties. Moreover, the spatial distribution of key permafrost parameters was simulated: temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP), active layer thickness (ALT), and maximum seasonal freezing depth (MSFD) using the TTOP model and Stefan Equation. Results reveal a distinct latitudinal SOC gradient (high south, low north), primarily mediated by vegetation structure, soil properties, and permafrost parameters. Vegetation coverage and above-ground biomass showed positive correlation with SOC, while soil bulk density (SBD) exhibited a negative correlation. Climate warming trends resulted in increased ALT and TTOP. Random Forest analysis identified SBD as the most important predictor of SOC variability, which explains 38.20% of the variance, followed by ALT and vegetation coverage. These findings likely enhance the understanding of carbon storage controls in vulnerable alpine permafrost ecosystems and provide insights to mitigate carbon release under climate change.
Thaw hazards in high-latitude and glaciated regions are becoming increasingly frequent because of global climate warming and human activities, posing significant threats to infrastructure stability and environmental sustainability. However, despite these risks, comprehensive investigations of thaw-hazard susceptibility in permafrost regions remain limited. Here, this gap is addressed by a systematic and long-term investigation of thaw hazards in China's Qinghai Province as a representative permafrost area. A detailed inventory of 534 thawhazard sites was developed based on remote sensing, field verification, and surveys by a UAV, providing critical data for susceptibility analysis. Eleven environmental factors influencing thaw hazards were identified and analyzed using information gain and Shapley additive explanation. By using the random forest model, a susceptibility map was generated, categorizing the study area into five susceptibility classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The key influencing factors include precipitation, permafrost type, temperature change rate, and human activity. The results reveal that 17.5 % of the permafrost region within the study area is classified as high to very high susceptibility, concentrated primarily near critical infrastructure such as the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, potentially posing significant risks to its structural stability. The random forest model shows robust predictive capability, achieving an accuracy of 0.906 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.965. These findings underscore the critical role of advanced modeling in understanding the spatial distribution and drivers of thaw hazards, offering actionable insights for hazard mitigation and infrastructure protection in permafrost regions under a changing climate.
Understanding changes in water balance and land-atmosphere interaction under climate change is crucial for managing water resources in alpine regions, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Evapotranspiration (ET), a key process in the land-atmosphere interaction, is influenced by permafrost degradation. As the active layer in permafrost regions deepens due to climate warming, the resulting shifts in surface hydrologic connectivity and water storage capacity affect vegetation's ability to access water, thereby influencing its growth and regulating ET dynamics, though the full complexity of this process remains unclear. This study employs the Budyko-Fu model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET and the ET ratio (the ratio of ET to precipitation) on the QTP from 1980 to 2100. While ET shows a continuous upward trend, the ET ratio exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, increasing initially and then decreasing. More than two-thirds of permafrost areas on the QTP surpassed the critical ET ratio threshold by 2023, under three emission scenarios. By 2100, nearly all areas are projected to reach the tipping point, with 97 % affected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Meadow and steppe regions are expected to encounter this threshold earlier, whereas forested areas will be less affected, with over 80 % unlikely to reach the tipping point by 2100. Basin-level differences are notable: nearly 90 % of the Qaidam basin exceeded the threshold before 2023, compared to less than 50 % in the Yangtze basin. By 2100, more than 80 % of regions in all basins are expected to cross the tipping point due to ongoing permafrost degradation. This study advances understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in alpine regions, providing critical insights for water resource management and improving extreme weather predictions.
Substantial nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from permafrost-affected regions could accelerate climate warming, given that N2O exhibits approximately 300 times greater radiative forcing potential than carbon dioxide. Pronounced differences exist in N2O emissions between freeze and thaw periods (FP and TP), but the mechanisms by which environmental factors regulate the production and emission of N2O during these two periods have not been thoroughly examined. We therefore combined static chamber gas chromatography, in-situ soil temperature (ST) and moisture (SM) monitoring, and 16S rRNA sequencing to investigate seasonal N2O variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) alpine meadow ecosystem, and assess the relative contributions of environmental and microbial drivers. Our findings indicate that N2O fluxes (-3.15 to 6.10 mu g m-2 h-1) fluctuated between weak sources and sinks, peaking during FP, particularly at its late stage with initial surface soil thawing. Soil properties affect N2O emissions by regulating denitrification processes and altering microbial community diversity. During the FP, ST fluctuations control N2O release by modifying mineral nutrient availability. During TP, soil texture modulates denitrification-driven N2O production through its effect on SM. Spring N2O pulses likely originate from microbial reactivation in thawed soil. N2O accumulated in frozen soil may gradually release during vertical profile thawing. On the QTP, a warmer and wetter climate scenario may alter N2O emissions by modifying the duration of the FP and TP and phase-specific hydrothermal allocation. This study provides mechanistic insights for predicting climate change impacts on N2O flux in fragile alpine meadow ecosystems.
Uneven displacement of permafrost has become a major concern in cold regions, particularly under repeated freezing-thawing cycles. This issue poses a significant geohazard, jeopardizing the safety of transportation infrastructure. Statistical analyses of thermal penetration suggest that the problem is likely to intensify as water erosion expands, with increasing occurrences of uneven displacement. To tackle the challenges related to mechanical behavior under cyclic loading, the New Geocell Soil System has been implemented to mitigate hydrothermal effects. Assessment results indicate that the New Geocell Soil System is stable and effective, offering advantages in controlling weak zones on connecting slopes and reducing uneven solar radiation. Consequently, the New Geocell Soil System provides valuable insights into the quality of embankments and ensures operational safety by maintaining displacement at an even level below 1.0 mm. The thermal gradient is positive, with displacement below 6 degrees C/m, serving as a framework for understanding the stability of the subgrade. This system also enhances stress and release the sealing phenomenon.
Thawing-triggered slope failures and landslides are becoming an increasing concern in cold regions due to the ongoing climate change. Predicting and understanding the behaviour of frozen soils under these changing conditions is therefore critical and has led to a growing interest in the research community. To address this challenge, we present the first mesh-free smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) computational framework designed to handle the multi-phase and multi-physic coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) process in frozen soils, namely the THM-SPH computational framework. The frozen soil is considered a tri-phase mixture (i.e., soil, water and ice), whose governing equations are then established based on u-p-T formulations. A critical-state elasto-plastic Clay and Sand Model for Frozen soils (CASM-F), formulated in terms of solid-phase stress, is then introduced to describe the transition response and large deformation behaviour of frozen soils due to thawing action for the first time. Several numerical verifications and demonstrations highlight the usefulness of this advanced THM-SPH computational framework in addressing challenging problems involving thawing-induced large deformation and failures of slopes. The results indicate that our proposed single-layer, fully coupled THM-SPH model can predict the entire failure process of thawing-induced landslides, from the initiation to post-failure responses, capturing the complex interaction among multiple coupled phases. This represents a significant advancement in the numerical modelling of frozen soils and their thawing-induced failure mechanisms in cold regions.
This study highlights the results of a palaeoecological analysis conducted on five permafrost peatlands in the northern tundra subzone along the Barents Sea coast in the European Arctic zone. The depth of the peat cores that were sampled was approximately 2 m. The analysis combined data on the main physical and chemical soil properties, radiocarbon dating, botanical composition, and mass fraction of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The concentrations of 16 PAHs in peat organic layers ranged from 140 to 254 ng/g, with an average of 182 ng/g. The peatlands studied were dominated by PAHs with a low molecular weight: naphthalene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, chrysene. The vertical distribution patterns of PAHs along the peat profile in the active layer and permafrost were determined. PAHs migrating down the active layer profile encounter the permafrost barrier and accumulate at the boundary between active layer and permafrost layer. The deep permafrost layers accumulate large amounts of PAHs and PAH derivatives, which are products of lignin conversion during the decomposition of grassy and woody vegetation during the Holocene climate optima. The total toxic equivalency concentration (TEQ) was calculated. Peatlands from the Barents Sea coast have low toxicity for carcinogenic PAHs throughout the profile. TEQ ranged from a minimum of 0.1 ng/g to a maximum of 13.5 ng/g in all peatlands investigated. For further potential use in Arctic/sub-Arctic environmental studies, PAH indicator ratios were estimated. In all investigated sections and peatland horizons, the most characteristic ratios indicate the petrogenic (natural) origin of PAHs.
Thawing permafrost alters climate not only through carbon emissions but also via energy-water feedback and atmospheric teleconnections. This review focuses on the Tibetan Plateau, where strong freeze-thaw cycles, intense radiation, and complex snow-vegetation interactions constitute non-carbon climate responses. We synthesize recent evidence that links freeze-thaw cycles, ground heat flux dynamics, and soil moisture hysteresis to latent heat feedback, monsoon modulation, and planetary wave anomalies. Across these pathways, both observational and simulation studies reveal consistent signals of feedback amplification and nonlinear threshold behavior. However, most Earth system models underrepresent these processes due to simplifications in freezethaw processes, snow-soil-vegetation coupling, and cross-seasonal memory effects. We conclude by identifying priority processes to better simulate multi-scale cryosphere-climate feedback, especially under continued climate warming in high-altitude regions.
In order to investigate the frost-heaving characteristics of wintering foundation pits in the seasonal frozen ground area, an outdoor in-situ test of wintering foundation pits was carried out to study the changing rules of horizontal frost heave forces, vertical frost heave forces, vertical displacement, and horizontal displacement of the tops of the supporting piles under the effect of groundwater and natural winterization. Based on the monitoring condition data of the in-situ test and the data, a coupled numerical model integrating hydrothermal and mechanical interactions of the foundation pit, considering the groundwater level and phase change, was established and verified by numerical simulation. The research results show that in the silty clay-sandy soil strata with water replenishment conditions and the all-silty clay strata without water replenishment conditions, the horizontal frost heave force presents a distribution feature of being larger in the middle and smaller on both sides in the early stage of overwintering. With the extension of freezing time, the horizontal frost heave force distribution of silty clay-sand strata gradually changes from the initial form to the Z shape, while the all-silty clay strata maintain the original distribution characteristics unchanged. Meanwhile, the peak point of the horizontal frost heave force in the all-silty clay stratum will gradually shift downward during the overwintering process. This phenomenon corresponds to the stage when the horizontal displacement of the pile top enters a stable and fluctuating phase. Based on the monitoring conditions of the in-situ test, a numerical model of the hydro-thermo-mechanical coupling in the overwintering foundation pit was established, considering the effects of the groundwater level and ice-water phase change. The accuracy and reliability of the model were verified by comparison with the monitoring data of the in-situ test using FLAC3D finite element analysis software. The evolution of the horizontal frost heaving force of the overwintering foundation pit and the change rule of its distribution pattern under different groundwater level conditions are revealed. This research can provide a reference for the prevention of frost heave damage and safety design of foundation pit engineering in seasonal frozen soil areas.