Slope failures resulting from thaw slumps in permafrost regions, have developed widely under the influence of climate change and engineering activities. The shear strength at the interface between the active layer and permafrost (IBALP) at maximum thawing depth is a critical factor to evaluate stability of permafrost slopes. Traditional direct shear, triaxial shear, and large-scale in-situ shear experiments are unsuitable for measuring the shear strength parameter of the IBALP. Based on the characteristics of thaw slumps in permafrost regions, this study proposes a novel test method of self-weight direct shear instrument (SWDSI), and its principle, structure, measurement system and test steps are described in detail. The shear strength of the IBALP under maximum thaw depth conditions is measured using this method. The results show that under the condition that the permafrost layer is thick underground ice and the active layer consists of silty clay with 20% water content, the test results are in good agreement with the results of field large-scale direct shear tests and are in accordance with previous understandings and natural laws. The above analysis indicates that the method of the SWDSI has a reliable theoretical basis and reasonable experimental procedures, and meets the needs of stability assessment of thaw slumps in permafrost regions. The experimental data obtained provide important parameter support for the evaluation of related geological hazards.

The thermal coupling between the atmosphere and the subsurface on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) governs permafrost stability, surface energy balance, and ecosystem processes, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics under accelerated warming are poorly understood. This study quantifies soil-atmosphere thermal coupling ((3) at the critical 0.1 m root-zone depth using in-situ data from 99 sites (1980-2020) and a machine learning framework. Results show significantly weaker coupling in permafrost (PF) zones (mean (3 = 0.42) than in seasonal frost (SF) zones (mean (3 = 0.50), confirming the powerful thermal buffering of permafrost. Critically, we find a widespread trend of weakening coupling (decreasing (3) at 66.7 % of sites, a phenomenon most pronounced in SF zones. Our driver analysis reveals that the spatial patterns of (3 are primarily controlled by surface insulation from summer rainfall and soil moisture. The temporal trends, however, are driven by a complex and counter-intuitive interplay. Paradoxically, rapid atmospheric warming is the strongest driver of a strengthening of coupling, likely due to the loss of insulative snow cover, while trends toward wetter conditions drive a weakening of coupling by enhancing surface insulation. Spatially explicit maps derived from our models pinpoint hotspots of accelerated decoupling in the eastern and southern QTP, while also identifying high-elevation PF regions where coupling is strengthening, signaling a loss of protective insulation and increased vulnerability to degradation. These findings highlight a dynamic and non-uniform response of land-atmosphere interactions to climate change, with profound implications for the QTP's cryosphere, hydrology, and ecosystems.

Infrastructure in northern regions is increasingly threatened by climate change, mainly due to permafrost thaw. Prediction of permafrost stability is essential for assessing the long-term stability of such infrastructure. A key aspect of geotechnical problems subject to climate change is addressing the surface energy balance (SEB). In this study, we evaluated three methodologies for applying surface boundary conditions in longterm thermal geotechnical analyses, including SEB heat flux, n-factors, and machine learning (ML) models by using ERA5-Land climate reanalysis data until 2100. We aimed to determine the most effective approach for accurately predicting ground surface temperatures for climate-resilient design of northern infrastructure. The evaluation results indicated that the ML-based approach outperformed both the SEB heat flux and n-factors methods, demonstrating significantly lower prediction errors. The feasibility of long-term thermal analysis of geotechnical problems using ML-predicted ground surface temperatures was then demonstrated through a permafrost case study in the community of Salluit in northern Canada, for which the thickness of the active layer and talik were calculated under moderate and extreme climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Finally, we discussed the application and limitations of surface boundary condition methodologies, such as the limited applicability of the n-factors in long-term analysis and the sensitivity of the SEB heat flux to inputs and thermal imbalance. The findings highlight the importance of selecting suitable boundary condition methodologies in enhancing the reliability of thermal geotechnical analyses in cold regions.

Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution and its environmental controls in permafrost regions is essential for achieving carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change. This study examines the spatial pattern of SOC and its drivers in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR), northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), a region highly susceptible to permafrost degradation. Field investigations at topsoils of 86 sites over three summers (2021-2023) provided data on SOC, vegetation structure, and soil properties. Moreover, the spatial distribution of key permafrost parameters was simulated: temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP), active layer thickness (ALT), and maximum seasonal freezing depth (MSFD) using the TTOP model and Stefan Equation. Results reveal a distinct latitudinal SOC gradient (high south, low north), primarily mediated by vegetation structure, soil properties, and permafrost parameters. Vegetation coverage and above-ground biomass showed positive correlation with SOC, while soil bulk density (SBD) exhibited a negative correlation. Climate warming trends resulted in increased ALT and TTOP. Random Forest analysis identified SBD as the most important predictor of SOC variability, which explains 38.20% of the variance, followed by ALT and vegetation coverage. These findings likely enhance the understanding of carbon storage controls in vulnerable alpine permafrost ecosystems and provide insights to mitigate carbon release under climate change.

Understanding changes in water balance and land-atmosphere interaction under climate change is crucial for managing water resources in alpine regions, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Evapotranspiration (ET), a key process in the land-atmosphere interaction, is influenced by permafrost degradation. As the active layer in permafrost regions deepens due to climate warming, the resulting shifts in surface hydrologic connectivity and water storage capacity affect vegetation's ability to access water, thereby influencing its growth and regulating ET dynamics, though the full complexity of this process remains unclear. This study employs the Budyko-Fu model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET and the ET ratio (the ratio of ET to precipitation) on the QTP from 1980 to 2100. While ET shows a continuous upward trend, the ET ratio exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, increasing initially and then decreasing. More than two-thirds of permafrost areas on the QTP surpassed the critical ET ratio threshold by 2023, under three emission scenarios. By 2100, nearly all areas are projected to reach the tipping point, with 97 % affected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Meadow and steppe regions are expected to encounter this threshold earlier, whereas forested areas will be less affected, with over 80 % unlikely to reach the tipping point by 2100. Basin-level differences are notable: nearly 90 % of the Qaidam basin exceeded the threshold before 2023, compared to less than 50 % in the Yangtze basin. By 2100, more than 80 % of regions in all basins are expected to cross the tipping point due to ongoing permafrost degradation. This study advances understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in alpine regions, providing critical insights for water resource management and improving extreme weather predictions.

Thaw hazards in high-latitude and glaciated regions are becoming increasingly frequent because of global climate warming and human activities, posing significant threats to infrastructure stability and environmental sustainability. However, despite these risks, comprehensive investigations of thaw-hazard susceptibility in permafrost regions remain limited. Here, this gap is addressed by a systematic and long-term investigation of thaw hazards in China's Qinghai Province as a representative permafrost area. A detailed inventory of 534 thawhazard sites was developed based on remote sensing, field verification, and surveys by a UAV, providing critical data for susceptibility analysis. Eleven environmental factors influencing thaw hazards were identified and analyzed using information gain and Shapley additive explanation. By using the random forest model, a susceptibility map was generated, categorizing the study area into five susceptibility classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The key influencing factors include precipitation, permafrost type, temperature change rate, and human activity. The results reveal that 17.5 % of the permafrost region within the study area is classified as high to very high susceptibility, concentrated primarily near critical infrastructure such as the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, potentially posing significant risks to its structural stability. The random forest model shows robust predictive capability, achieving an accuracy of 0.906 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.965. These findings underscore the critical role of advanced modeling in understanding the spatial distribution and drivers of thaw hazards, offering actionable insights for hazard mitigation and infrastructure protection in permafrost regions under a changing climate.

Climate change is driving permafrost thaw, releasing previously frozen resources, such as nitrogen, to the soil active layer. In low-nitrogen systems, like boreal peatlands, this novel nitrogen source may benefit plant productivity. However, other resource limitations (for example, light) may limit plant access to thaw-front nitrogen. We used a stable isotope experiment to explore variations in understory boreal plant species' ability to take up different forms of newly released nitrogen from permafrost thaw under different canopy covers. This experiment occurred in a peatland in the sporadic discontinuous permafrost zone of the Northwest Territories, Canada. We added N-15 labelled ammonium, nitrate, and the amino acid glycine at the thaw front (40 cm depth) at two sites differentiated by high and low canopy cover and determined uptake of N-15 in leaves of several common and abundant boreal plant species. We found that the probability of plant uptake of thaw-front nitrogen was significantly greater at low canopy cover sites; however, nitrogen form, plant species, and foliar N-mass had no effect. We further found that Rubus chamaemorus had the highest foliar N-mass followed by Rhododendron groenlandicum, Chamaedaphne calyculata, and Vaccinium vitis-idaea. Our results demonstrate that access to nitrogen released from permafrost thaw by boreal plants may be mediated by light availability. Understanding the variation in site response to permafrost thaw contributes to our understanding of how boreal peatlands will change with ongoing climate change.

Permafrost thawing is a critical climate tipping point, with catastrophic consequences. Existing stabilization methods rely on refrigerant-based systems, such as thermosyphons and active refrigeration, which are capital-intensive, energy-demanding, or increasingly ineffective in warming climates. Most infrastructure built on permafrost requires continuous heat removal from the foundation as the underlying permafrost becomes progressively unstable. To address these challenges, we demonstrate a fully biomass-derived cooling geotextile that can effectively mitigate permafrost thawing through scalable nanoprocessing via a roll-to-roll fabrication (1.3 mmin-1). The cooling geotextile features a hierarchical three-layer design: a strong woven biomass scaffold, a permeable nonwoven fiber network, and an optimized porous coating layer with micro- and nano-structures. When anchored to bare ground, it extracts heat to the cold sky, enhances albedo from similar to 30% to 96.3%, and establishes a thermal barrier between soil and air. Engineered for Arctic durability, it withstands strong winds, extreme cold, and freeze-thaw cycles, exceeding the American National Engineering Handbook requirements (tensile strength 1,682 kg; tear strength 191 kg; puncture strength 61 kg). Field tests in West Lafayette, IN (40 degrees 25 ' 21 '' N, 86 degrees 55 ' 12 '' W) reveal up to 25 degrees C soil cooling under 500 Wm-2 irradiance. Its lightweight (0.8 kgm-2) and rollable attributes enable scalable and fast localized deployment. Simulations predict up to 12 degrees C surface cooling during Arctic summer (2020-2050), preventing up to 40,000 km2 of permafrost from thawing. Completely derived from biomass, cooling geotextile ensures a low carbon footprint (0.7 kgm-2), positioning itself as a sustainable solution for reinforcing Arctic coastline, reconstructing thawing landscape, and restoring the environment.

Substantial nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from permafrost-affected regions could accelerate climate warming, given that N2O exhibits approximately 300 times greater radiative forcing potential than carbon dioxide. Pronounced differences exist in N2O emissions between freeze and thaw periods (FP and TP), but the mechanisms by which environmental factors regulate the production and emission of N2O during these two periods have not been thoroughly examined. We therefore combined static chamber gas chromatography, in-situ soil temperature (ST) and moisture (SM) monitoring, and 16S rRNA sequencing to investigate seasonal N2O variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) alpine meadow ecosystem, and assess the relative contributions of environmental and microbial drivers. Our findings indicate that N2O fluxes (-3.15 to 6.10 mu g m-2 h-1) fluctuated between weak sources and sinks, peaking during FP, particularly at its late stage with initial surface soil thawing. Soil properties affect N2O emissions by regulating denitrification processes and altering microbial community diversity. During the FP, ST fluctuations control N2O release by modifying mineral nutrient availability. During TP, soil texture modulates denitrification-driven N2O production through its effect on SM. Spring N2O pulses likely originate from microbial reactivation in thawed soil. N2O accumulated in frozen soil may gradually release during vertical profile thawing. On the QTP, a warmer and wetter climate scenario may alter N2O emissions by modifying the duration of the FP and TP and phase-specific hydrothermal allocation. This study provides mechanistic insights for predicting climate change impacts on N2O flux in fragile alpine meadow ecosystems.

Suprapermafrost groundwater (SPG) plays a critical role in hydrological and ecological functioning of permafrost regions, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics and controlling mechanisms remain poorly understood on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Here, we integrated in situ observations, geophysical surveys, and machine learning (ML) models (including XGBoost, LightGBM, and RandomForest) to investigate the seasonal variation, drivers, and projections of SPG dynamics in alpine meadow (AM) and alpine wet meadow (AWM) ecosystems. Results showed that SPG tables ranged from -1.1 to -0.1 m in AM and from -1.3 to -0.2 m in AWM during the warm season. SPG fluctuations were primarily driven by thaw depth (TD) and rainfall infiltration and exhibited similar seasonal patterns across both ecosystems. A greater TD was associated with a deeper SPG table, as deeper thawing expanded the unsaturated zone and enhanced vertical drainage, indicating an exponential relationship between TD and SPG table position, and a linear relationship with aquifer thickness. In contrast, rainfall infiltration increased shallow soil moisture and elevated SPG tables, with responses influenced by rainfall intensity, duration, and infiltration pathways. Spatial heterogeneity in SPG distribution was further shaped by vegetation structure and microtopographic variation. Furthermore, ML models projected that mean summer SPG table depths in the 2090s would increase by 0.06 m under SSP126 and 0.64 m under SSP585 in AWM ecosystems, and by 0.37 m under SSP126 and 0.87 m under SSP585 in AM ecosystems. These findings provide new insights into how climate warming affects hydrological processes in permafrost regions of the QTP.