The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) is located on the Tibetan Plateau, within a transitional zone between seasonally frozen ground and continuous permafrost. Over 70 % of the region is predominantly covered by alpine grasslands, a vulnerable ecosystem increasingly threatened by ongoing permafrost degradation. This study utilized satellite data to analyze permafrost degradation by measuring active layer thickness (ALT) and the soil non-frozen period (NFP), and to investigate their impacts on alpine grassland growth. Results showed significant permafrost degradation from 2000 to 2020, with ALT thickening at a rate of 7.79 cm/decade (p < 0.05) and NFP lengthening by 1.1 days/yr (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, grassland vegetation exhibited a significant greening trend (0.0014 yr(-1), p < 0.01). Using the partial least squares (PLS) regression method, the study evaluated the relationships between grassland dynamics and permafrost degradation, while jointly accounting for climate variables (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration). ALT thickening was the dominant explanatory variable for grassland growth in 11.09 % of the region, and it was positively correlated in relatively cold western and alpine areas, but negatively correlated in the relatively warm eastern and central regions. NFP extension was the dominant explanatory variable for grassland growth in 10.38 % of the region, although its positive correlation weakened as climate conditions transitioned from relatively cold-dry to relatively warm-wet. Although permafrost degradation was positively correlated with grassland greening in relatively cold regions, the diminishing benefit of NFP extension and the adverse effects of ALT thickening may increasingly undermine grassland stability in relatively warm regions under further climate warming.
Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution and its environmental controls in permafrost regions is essential for achieving carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change. This study examines the spatial pattern of SOC and its drivers in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR), northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), a region highly susceptible to permafrost degradation. Field investigations at topsoils of 86 sites over three summers (2021-2023) provided data on SOC, vegetation structure, and soil properties. Moreover, the spatial distribution of key permafrost parameters was simulated: temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP), active layer thickness (ALT), and maximum seasonal freezing depth (MSFD) using the TTOP model and Stefan Equation. Results reveal a distinct latitudinal SOC gradient (high south, low north), primarily mediated by vegetation structure, soil properties, and permafrost parameters. Vegetation coverage and above-ground biomass showed positive correlation with SOC, while soil bulk density (SBD) exhibited a negative correlation. Climate warming trends resulted in increased ALT and TTOP. Random Forest analysis identified SBD as the most important predictor of SOC variability, which explains 38.20% of the variance, followed by ALT and vegetation coverage. These findings likely enhance the understanding of carbon storage controls in vulnerable alpine permafrost ecosystems and provide insights to mitigate carbon release under climate change.
Suprapermafrost groundwater (SPG) plays a critical role in hydrological and ecological functioning of permafrost regions, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics and controlling mechanisms remain poorly understood on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Here, we integrated in situ observations, geophysical surveys, and machine learning (ML) models (including XGBoost, LightGBM, and RandomForest) to investigate the seasonal variation, drivers, and projections of SPG dynamics in alpine meadow (AM) and alpine wet meadow (AWM) ecosystems. Results showed that SPG tables ranged from -1.1 to -0.1 m in AM and from -1.3 to -0.2 m in AWM during the warm season. SPG fluctuations were primarily driven by thaw depth (TD) and rainfall infiltration and exhibited similar seasonal patterns across both ecosystems. A greater TD was associated with a deeper SPG table, as deeper thawing expanded the unsaturated zone and enhanced vertical drainage, indicating an exponential relationship between TD and SPG table position, and a linear relationship with aquifer thickness. In contrast, rainfall infiltration increased shallow soil moisture and elevated SPG tables, with responses influenced by rainfall intensity, duration, and infiltration pathways. Spatial heterogeneity in SPG distribution was further shaped by vegetation structure and microtopographic variation. Furthermore, ML models projected that mean summer SPG table depths in the 2090s would increase by 0.06 m under SSP126 and 0.64 m under SSP585 in AWM ecosystems, and by 0.37 m under SSP126 and 0.87 m under SSP585 in AM ecosystems. These findings provide new insights into how climate warming affects hydrological processes in permafrost regions of the QTP.
Thawing permafrost alters climate not only through carbon emissions but also via energy-water feedback and atmospheric teleconnections. This review focuses on the Tibetan Plateau, where strong freeze-thaw cycles, intense radiation, and complex snow-vegetation interactions constitute non-carbon climate responses. We synthesize recent evidence that links freeze-thaw cycles, ground heat flux dynamics, and soil moisture hysteresis to latent heat feedback, monsoon modulation, and planetary wave anomalies. Across these pathways, both observational and simulation studies reveal consistent signals of feedback amplification and nonlinear threshold behavior. However, most Earth system models underrepresent these processes due to simplifications in freezethaw processes, snow-soil-vegetation coupling, and cross-seasonal memory effects. We conclude by identifying priority processes to better simulate multi-scale cryosphere-climate feedback, especially under continued climate warming in high-altitude regions.
Permafrost degradation, driven by the thawing of ground ice, results in the progressive thinning and eventual loss of the permafrost layer. This process alters hydrological and ecological systems by increasing surface and subsurface water flow, changing vegetation density, and destabilising the ground. The thermal and hydraulic conductivity of permafrost are strongly temperature-dependent, both increasing as the soil warms, thereby accelerating thaw. In addition, thawing permafrost releases large quantities of greenhouse gases, establishing a feedback loop in which global warming both drives and is intensified by permafrost loss. This paper reviews the mechanisms and consequences of permafrost degradation, including reductions in strength and enhanced deformability, which induce landslides and threaten the structural integrity of foundations and critical infrastructure. Permafrost has been investigated and modelled extensively, and various approaches have been devised to address the consequences of thawing permafrost on communities and the built environment. Some techniques focus on keeping the ground frozen via insulation, while others propose local replacement of permafrost with more stable materials. However, given the scale and pace of current changes, systematic remediation appears unfeasible. This calls for increased efforts towards adaptation, informed by interdisciplinary research.
This study conducted load-bearing capacity tests to quantitatively analyze the impact of permafrost degradation on the vertical load-bearing capacity of railway bridge pile foundations. Meanwhile, a prediction model vertical load-bearing capacity for pile foundations considering permafrost degradation was developed and validated through these tests. The findings indicate that the permafrost degradation significantly influences both the failure patterns of the pile foundation and the surrounding soil. With the aggravation of permafrost degradation, damage to the pile foundation and the surrounding soil becomes more pronounced. Furthermore, permafrost degradation aggravates, both the vertical ultimate bearing capacity and maximum side friction resistance of pile foundations exhibit a significant downward trend. Under unfrozen soil conditions, the vertical ultimate bearing capacity of pile foundations is reduced to 20.1 % compared to when the permafrost thickness 160 cm, while the maximum side friction resistance drops to 13.2 %. However, permafrost degradation has minimal impact on the maximum end bearing capacity of pile foundations. Nevertheless, as permafrost degradation aggravates, the proportion of the maximum end bearing capacity attributed to pile foundations increases. Moreover, the rebound rate of pile foundations decreases with decreasing permafrost thickness. Finally, the results confirm that the proposed prediction model can demonstrates a satisfactory level of accuracy in forecasting the impact of permafrost degradation on the vertical load-bearing capacity of pile foundations.
Alpine wet meadow (AWM), an important wetland type on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), is sensitive to climate change, which alters the soil hydrothermal regime and impacts ecological and hydrological functions in permafrost regions. The mechanisms underlying extreme AWM degradation in the QTP and hydrothermal factors controlling permafrost degradation remain unclear. In this study, soil hydrothermal processes, soil heat migration, and the permafrost state were measured in AWM and extremely degraded AWM (EDAWM). The results showed that the EDAWM exhibited delayed onset of both soil thawing and freezing, shortened thawing period, and extended freezing period at the lower boundary of the active layer. The lower ground temperatures resulted in a 0.2 m shallower active layer thickness in the EDAWM compared with the AWM. Moreover, the EDAWM altered soil thermal dynamics by redistributing energy, modifying soil moisture, preserving soil organic matter, and adjusting soil thermal properties. As for energy budget, a substantial amount of heat in the EDAWM was consumed by turbulent heat fluxes, particularly latent heat flux, which reduced the amount of heat transferred to the ground. Additionally, the higher soil organic matter content in EDAWM decreased the annual mean soil thermal conductivity from 1.42 W m- 1 K-1 in AWM to 1.26 W m- 1 K-1 in EDAWM, slowing down heat transfer within the active layer and consequently mitigating permafrost degradation. However, with continued climate warming, the soil organic matter content in EDAWM will inevitably decline due to microbial decomposition in the absence of new organic inputs. As the soil organic matter content diminishes, soil heat transfer processes will likely accelerate, and the permafrost warming rate may surpass that in undistributed AWM. These findings enhance our understanding of how alpine ecosystem succession influences regional hydrological cycles and greenhouse gas emissions.
This paper investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics and their changes of the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost (SLLP) and the lower limit of mountain permafrost (LLMP) in Northeast China, emphasizing the roles of climate change and human activities. Permafrost in this region is primarily distributed in the northern parts of the Da and Xiao Xing'anling mountain ranges and in the upper parts of the Changbai Mountains and at the summits of the Huanggangliang Mountains in the southern part of the Da Xing'anling Mountain Range. Permafrost degradation, ongoing since at least the local Holocene Megathermal Period (8.5-6.0 ka BP), has intermittently reversed during cooler climatic intervals but continues to exert significant impacts on regional environments, infrastructure stability, and carbon storage. Notably, the northward retreats of the SLLP since the mid-19th century underscore the sustained nature of this degradation, especially in southern patchy permafrost zones increasingly sensitive to warming and anthropogenic influences. LLMP variability is similarly shaped by a combination of climatic, hydrometeorological, ecological, and topographic factors. The distributions of SLLP and LLMP are further complicated by the presence of relict and sporadic permafrost, as well as the hydrothermal effects of vegetation and snow cover. Addressing the challenges of mapping and modeling boreal permafrost in Northeast China requires comprehensive field investigations, long-term in situ monitoring via station networks, and advanced numerical modeling. Emerging technologies, including satellite and airborne remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), surface geophysical methods, and big data analytics, offer new possibilities for enhancing permafrost monitoring and mapping. Integrating these tools with conventional field studies can significantly improve our understanding of permafrost dynamics. Continued efforts in monitoring, technological innovation, multidisciplinary collaboration, and international cooperation are essential to meet the challenges posed by permafrost degradation in a changing climate.
Ongoing and widespread permafrost degradation potentially affects terrestrial ecosystems, whereas the changes in its effects on vegetation under climate change remain unclear. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of progressive active layer thickness (ALT) increases to vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) in the northern permafrost region during the 21st century. Our results revealed that ALT changes accounted for 40% of the GPP increase in the permafrost region during 2000-2021, with amplified effects observed in late growing season (September-October) (43.2%-45.4%) and was especially notable in tundra ecosystems (51%-52.6%). However, projections indicated that this contribution could decrease considerably in the coming decades. Model simulations suggest that once ALT increments (relative to the 2001-2021 baseline) reach approximately 90 cm between 2035 and 2045, the promoting effect of ALT increase on vegetation growth may disappear. These findings provide crucial insights for accurately modelling and predicting ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudinal regions.
Permafrost degradation is one of the most significant consequences of climate change in the Arctic. During summers, permafrost degradation is evident with cryospheric hazards like retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) and active layer detachment slides (ALDs). In parallel, the Arctic has become a popular tourist destination for nature-based activities, with summer being the peak touristic season. In this context, cryospheric hazards pose potential risks for tourists' presence in Arctic national parks and wilderness in general, like in the Yukon. This essay provides the basis for investigating further periglacial, geomorphological and tourism intersections, highlighting the critical need for future interdisciplinary research on thawing permafrost impacts. More so, this requires moving beyond the predominant focus on permafrost impacts on infrastructure and to also consider the direct threats posed to human physical presence in Arctic tourist destinations affected by permafrost degradation. Such interdisciplinary approach is critical not only to mitigate risks, but also to provide policy- and decision-makers with valuable insights for implementing measures and guidelines.