Design/methodology/approach The impact force induced by welded joints is obtained through vehicle–track coupling dynamics. The normal and tangential wheel–rail contact pressures were solved by elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) theory and simplified third-body layer theory, respectively. Then, the obtained tangential pressure and normal pressure were applied to the finite element model as moving loads, simulating cyclic loading. Finally, the shakedown map and critical plane method were used to predict rolling contact fatigue (RCF) and the initiation of fatigue cracks. Findings The results indicate that RCF will occur and fatigue cracks are more prone to appear on the subsurface of the rail, specifically around 2.7 mm below the rail surface in the vicinity of the welded joint and its heat-affected zone. Originality/value The cosimulation of numerical model and finite element model was implemented. The influence of surface roughness and fluids was considered. In this model, the normal and tangential wheel–rail contact pressure, the stress and strain and the rail fatigue cracks were obtained under a rail-welded joint excitation.