Design/methodology/approach In this research paper, the authors focus on the high-speed rotating lip seal of aircraft engines. Using the hybrid lubrication theory, a thermal-fluid-solid coupled numerical simulation model is established to investigate the influence of parameters such as contact pressure distribution, temperature rise and leakage rate on the sealing performance under different operating conditions. By incorporating the Rhee wear theory and combining simulation results with experimental data, a method for predicting the wear of the rotating seal lip profile is proposed. Experimental validation is conducted using a high-speed rotating test rig. Findings The results indicate that as the speed increases, the rise in frictional heat leads to a decrease in the sealing performance of the lip seal contact region. The experimental results show a similar trend to the numerical simulation results, and considering the effect of frictional heat, the predicted wear of the lip seal profile aligns more closely with the actual wear curve. This highlights the importance of considering the influence of frictional heat in the analysis of rotating seal mechanisms. Originality/value This study provides a reference for the prediction of wear profiles of engine high-speed rotary lip seals.