Ball bearings operating at low speeds and under heavy loads are susceptible to wear failure, leading to significant economic losses. The existing reliability-based robust design optimization method of the fourth-moment method has high accuracy and does not need to determine the random distribution of the input variables, but it is not possible to apply it to ball bearing wear due to the complexity of the bearing wear state function that cannot be characterized as an explicit form. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel design method for ball bearing wear. Firstly, a surrogate model is constructed using the Kriging model method to establish a relationship between the bearing design parameters and the mechanical response. Subsequently, a wear reliability model is developed on the basis of the fourth-moment method, and reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted. Finally, the ball bearing wear reliability-based robust design optimization is accomplished through the use of a genetic algorithm. The results of the case calculations demonstrate that the proposed method effectively calculates the ball bearing wear reliability and analyzes the impact of design parameter randomness on reliability. Furthermore, optimizing the design parameters reduces the sensitivity of wear reliability to parameter randomness.
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